5 - Irredentist Annexation (Crimea)

Summary

Chapter 5 is the first part of our analytic narrative. We describe equilibrium selection in the immediate aftermath of the Maidan events. The first theater was Crimea. The question was whether Russian-speaking elites in peripheral communities would accept the first storyline (“Dignity”) and remain loyal to the Ukrainian state, or accept the second storyline (“coup”) and opt for sedition. Elites in Crimea coordinated rapidly on sedition. The only militias in the streets were pro-Russia (though a brave pro-Ukraine demonstration by Crimean Tatars is described). Russian soldiers arrived to secure parliament. The Party of Regions networks served a coordinating function, repurposing state institutions to legitimize the Russian presence and ensuring institutional continuity. Crimeans voted, Russia claimed self-determination, and the government in Kyiv was checkmated. Coordinated sedition was a fait accompli.