5 - Reasonable Hypothesis

Summary

The chapter examines the crucial question whether the ECtHR recognizes that a reasonable hypothesis of harm is sufficient to establish the link between environmental harm and a specific risk to a Convention right required under the specific risk principle. The crucial ECHR rules on this point relate to evidence and the requirements for victim status under Article 34 ECHR. The chapter first sets out the general principles developed with respect to the rules of evidence and victim status before exploring some encouraging developments in more recent cases under Articles 2 and 8 ECHR. The chapter recognises the difficulties and limitations that arise for applicants who seek to obtain relevant evidence and records from reluctant states. Nonetheless, the ECHR case law generally comports well with the requirements of the environmental minimum. The ECtHR does not require applicants to demonstrate an irrefutable scientific link between the environmental harm and an impact on their rights: in many recent decisions the ECtHR is content with evidence of a general population level risk arising from the environmental harm expierienced by the applicant.