Book contents
- Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis
- Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- 1 Policy Analysis: An Overview
- Part I Making Decisions that Maximize Utility
- Part II Some Widely Used Analysis Tools and Topics
- 8 Characterizing, Analyzing, and Communicating Uncertainty1
- 9 Expert Elicitation1
- 10 Risk Analysis1
- 11 The Use of Models in Policy Analysis
- Part III How Individuals and Organizations Actually Make Decisions
- Part IV The Policy Process and S&T Policy (Mainly) in the United States
- Book part
- Index
- References
11 - The Use of Models in Policy Analysis
from Part II - Some Widely Used Analysis Tools and Topics
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 24 August 2017
Book contents
- Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis
- Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- 1 Policy Analysis: An Overview
- Part I Making Decisions that Maximize Utility
- Part II Some Widely Used Analysis Tools and Topics
- 8 Characterizing, Analyzing, and Communicating Uncertainty1
- 9 Expert Elicitation1
- 10 Risk Analysis1
- 11 The Use of Models in Policy Analysis
- Part III How Individuals and Organizations Actually Make Decisions
- Part IV The Policy Process and S&T Policy (Mainly) in the United States
- Book part
- Index
- References
Summary
A summary is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Theory and Practice in Policy AnalysisIncluding Applications in Science and Technology, pp. 309 - 342Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2017
References
Ågren, G. and Andersson, F. (2012). Terrestrial Ecosystem Ecology: Principles and Applications, Cambridge University Press, 330pp.Google Scholar
Alcamo, J., Shaw, R., and Hordijk, L. (eds.) (1990). The RAINS Model of Acidification: Science and Strategies in Europe, Kluwer, 402pp.Google Scholar
Au, T. and Au, T.P. (1992). Engineering Economics for Capital Investment Analysis, Prentice Hall, 540pp.Google Scholar
Ayres, R.U. (1984). “Limits and Possibilities of Large-Scale Long-Range Societal Models,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 25(4), pp. 297–308.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benjamin, J.R. and Cornell, C.A. (1970). Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers, McGraw-Hill, 684pp.Google Scholar
Casman, E.A., Ha-Duong, M., and Morgan, M.G. (2004). “Response to Sander Greenland’s Critique of Bounding Analysis,” Risk Analysis, 24(5), pp. 1093–1096.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casman, E.A. and Morgan, M.G. (2005). “Use of Expert Judgment to Bound Lung Cancer Risks,” Environmental Science & Technology, 39, pp. 5911–5920.Google Scholar
Casman, E.A., Morgan, M.G., and Dowlatabadi, H. (1999). “Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models,” Risk Analysis, 19(1), pp. 33–42.Google Scholar
Cohen, J.E. (1995). “Population Growth and Earth’s Human Carrying Capacity,” Science, 269, pp. 341–346.Google Scholar
Craig, P.P., Gadgil, A., and Koomey, J.G. (2002). “What Can History Teach US? Examination of Long-Term Energy Forecasts for the United States,” Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 27, pp. 83–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dowlatabadi, H. and Morgan, M.G. (1993). “A Model Framework for Integrated Studies of the Climate Problem,” Energy Policy, 21(3), pp. 209–221.Google Scholar
EIA (2009). The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009, DOE/EIA-0581, 77pp. Available at: www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/nems/overview/pdf/0581(2009).pdf.Google Scholar
Fischbeck, P., Zhai, H., and Anderson, J. et al. (2015). "A Techno-Economic Decision Support Tool for Guiding States’ Responses to the EPA Clean Power Plan.” Available at: www.cmu.edu/energy/cleanpowerplantool.Google Scholar
Flyvbjerg, B., Skamris Holm, M.K., and Buhl, S.L. (2003). “How Common and How Large Are Cost Overruns in Transport Infrastructure Projects?,” Transport Review, 23(1), pp. 71–88.Google Scholar
Ford Foundation Energy Project (1974). A Time to Choose: America’s Energy Future, Ballenger, 511pp.Google Scholar
Gabriel, S.A., Kydes, A.S., and Whitman, P. (2001). “The National Energy Modeling System: A Large-Scale Energy-Economic Equilibrium Model,” Operations Research, 49(1), pp. 14–25.Google Scholar
Greenberger, M. (1983). Caught Unawares: The Energy Decade in Retrospect, Ballinger, 415pp.Google Scholar
Greenberger, M., Crenson, M.A., and Crissy, B.L. (1976). Models in the Policy Process: Public Decision Making in the Computer Era, Russell Sage Foundation/Basic Books, 355pp.Google Scholar
GTS (1980). The Global 2000 Report to the President: Entering the Twenty-First Century, ed. by Barney, G.O., 3 vols., Council on Environmental Quality and the Department of State.Google Scholar
Ha-Duong, M.E., Casman, A., and Morgan, M.G. (2004). “Bounding Poorly Characterized Risks: A Lung Cancer Example,” Risk Analysis, 24(5), pp. 1071–1084.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Harte, J. (1988). Consider a Spherical Cow: A Course in Environmental Problem Solving, University Science Books, 283pp.Google Scholar
Hendrickson, C. and Au, T. (2008). Project Management and Construction: Fundamental Concepts for Owners, Engineers, Architects and Builders. Online book available at: http://pmbook.ce.cmu.edu.Google Scholar
Hendrickson, C.T., Lave, L.B., and Matthews, H.S. (2006). Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Goods and Services: An Input-Output Approach, Resources for the Future, 262pp.Google Scholar
Henrion, M. (2004). “What’s Wrong with Spreadsheets: And How To Fix Them With Analytica,” 16pp. Available at: www.lumina.com/uploads/technology/Whats%20wrong%20with%20spreadsheets.pdf.Google Scholar
Horowitz, K.J. and Planting, M.A. (2009). Concepts and Methods of the Input-Output Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, 266pp. Available at: www.bea.gov/papers/pdf/IOmanual_092906.pdf.Google Scholar
House, P.W. and McLeod, J. (1977). Large Scale Models for Policy Evaluation, Wiley-Interscience, 326pp.Google Scholar
Huntington, H.G. (1994). “Oil Price Forecasting in the 1980s: What Went Wrong?,” The Energy Journal, 15, pp. 1–22.Google Scholar
IECM (2015). The Integrated Environmental Control Model. Available at: www.cmu.edu/epp/iecm.Google Scholar
ISO (1997). “ISO Standard 14040: Environmental Management – Life Cycle Assessment: Principles and Framework,” International Standard Organization, 12pp.Google Scholar
ISO (2006). “ISO 14040: Environmental Management – Life Cycle Assessment: Principles and Framework,” International Standards Organization. Available online at www.iso.org/iso/catalogue_detail?csnumber=37456.Google Scholar
Keyfitz, N. (1981). “The Limits of Population Forecasting,” Population and Development Review, 7(4), pp. 579–593.Google Scholar
Koomey, J., Craig, P., Gadgil, A., and Lorenzetti, D. (2003). “Improving Long-Range Energy Modeling: A Plea for Historical Retrospectives,” The Energy Journal, 24, pp. 75–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lave, L.B. and Dowlatabadi, H. (1993). “Climate Change: The Effects of Personal Beliefs and Scientific Uncertainty,” Engineering Science &Technology, 27(10), pp. 1962–1972.Google Scholar
Lave, L.B., Dowlatabadi, H., McRae, G.J., Morgan, M.G., and Rubin, E.S. (1992). “Uncertainties of Climate Change,” Nature, 355, p. 197.Google Scholar
Linderoth, H. (2002). “Forecast Errors in IEA-Countries’ Energy Consumption,” Energy Policy, 30, pp. 53–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lutz, W. and Goldstein, J.R. (2004). “Introduction: How to Deal With Uncertainty in Population Forecasting?” International Statistical Review, 72(1), pp. 1–4.Google Scholar
McKitrick, R.R. (1998). “The Econometric Critique of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: The Role of Functional Forms,” Economic Modelling, 15(4), pp. 543–573.Google Scholar
Matthews, H.S. and Hendrickson, C.T. (2015). Life Cycle Assessment: Quantitative Approaches for Decisions That Matter, 241pp. Only available at: https://cmu.app.box.com/s/5mnzyq1y3gcyjrveubf4/1/2746878222.Google Scholar
Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., and Behrens, W.W. (1972). The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind, Universe Books, 205pp.Google Scholar
Milford, J.B., Russell, A.G., and McRae, G.J. (1989). “A New Approach to Photochemical Pollution Control: Implications of Spatial Patterns in Pollutant Responses to Reductions in Nitrogen Oxides and Reactive Organic Gas Emissions,” Environmental Science & Technology, 23(10), pp. 1290–1301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, M.G. (2001). “The Neglected Art of Bounding Analysis,” Viewpoint, Environmental Science & Technology, 35, pp. 162A–164A.Google Scholar
Morgan, M.G. and Dowlatabadi, H. (1996). “Learning from Integrated Assessment of Climate Change,” Climatic Change, 34, pp. 337–368.Google Scholar
Morgan, M.G. and Henrion, M. (1990). Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press, 332pp.Google Scholar
Morgan, M.G., Kandlikar, M., Risbey, J., and Dowlatabadi, H. (1999). “Why Conventional Tools for Policy Analysis Are Often Inadequate for Problems of Global Change,” Climatic Change, 41, pp. 271–281.Google Scholar
Morgan, M.G. and Keith, D. (1995). “Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts,” Environmental Science & Technology, 29(10), pp. 468A–476A.Google Scholar
Morgan, M.G. and McMichael, F.C. (1981). “A Characterization and Critical Discussion of Models and Their Use in Environmental Policy,” Policy Sciences, 14, pp. 345–370.Google Scholar
Nordhaus, W.D. and Boyer, J. (2000). Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming, MIT Press, 232pp.Google Scholar
O’Neil, B.C. and Desai, M. (2005). “Accuracy of Past Projections of U.S. Energy Consumption,” Energy Policy, 33, pp. 979–993.Google Scholar
Parson, E.A. and Fisher-Vanden, K. (1997). “Integrated Assessment Models of Global Climate Change,” Annual Reviews of Energy and the Environment, 22, pp. 589–628.Google Scholar
Pindyck, R.S. (2013). “Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?,” Journal of Economic Literature, 51(3), pp. 860–872.Google Scholar
Raftery, A.E., Li, N., Ševčíková, H., Gerland, P., and Heilig, G.K. (2012). “Bayesian Probabilistic Population Projections for All Countries,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(35), pp. 13915–13921.Google Scholar
Rodrik, D. (2015). Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science, W.W. Norton & Company, 253pp.Google Scholar
Rose, S., Turner, D., Blanford, G., Bistline, J., de la Chesnaye, F., and Wilson, T. (2014). Understanding the Social Cost of Carbon: A Technical Assessment – Executive Summary, EPRI, 18pp.Google Scholar
Rubin, E.S. (1991). “Benefit-Cost Implications of Acid Rain Controls: An Evaluation of the NAPAP Integrated Assessment,” Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 41(7), pp. 914–921.Google Scholar
Rubin, E.S., Bloyd, C.N., Small, M.J., Marnicio, R.J., and Henrion, M. (1990). “Atmospheric Deposition Assessment Model: Applications to Regional Aquatic Acidification in Eastern North America,” in Kamari, J. (ed.), Impact Models to Assess Regional Acidification, Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 253–284.Google Scholar
Rubin, E.S., Lave, L.B., and Morgan, M.G. (1991). “Keeping Climate Research Relevant,” Issues in Science and Technology, 8(2), pp. 47–55.Google Scholar
Rubin, E.S., Small, M.J., Bloyd, C.N., and Henrion, M. (1992). “Integrated Assessment of Acid Deposition Effects on Lake Acidification,” Journal of Environmental Engineering, 118(1), pp. 120–134.Google Scholar
Scarf, H.E. and Shoven, J.B. (eds.) (1984). Applied General Equilibrium Analysis, Cambridge University Press, 538pp.Google Scholar
Schnoor, J.L. (1996). Environmental Modeling: Fate and Transport of Pollutants in Water, Air, and Soil, John Wiley & Sons, 682pp.Google Scholar
Schweizer, V. and Morgan, M.G. (2016). “Bounding U.S. Electricity Demand in 2050,” Technological Forecasting & Social Change, pp. 215–223.Google Scholar
Seinfeld, J.H. and Pandis, S.N. (2006). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics: From Air Pollution to Climate Change, Wiley, 1203pp.Google Scholar
Smil, V. (2000). “Perils of Long-Range Energy Forecasting: Reflections on Looking Far Ahead,” Technology Forecasting and Social Change, 65, pp. 251–264.Google Scholar
Smil, V. (2003). Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties, MIT Press, 427pp.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, J. and Smith, P. (2007). Introduction to Environmental Modeling, Oxford University Press, 180pp.Google Scholar
Sterman, J.D. (1991). “A Skeptic’s Guide to Computer Models,” Managing a Nation: The Microcomputer Software Catalog, 2, pp. 209–229.Google Scholar
Weaver, W. (1948). “Science and Complexity,” American Scientist, 36, pp. 536–544.Google ScholarPubMed
West, G.R. (1995). “Comparison of Input–Output, Input–Output + Econometric and Computable General Equilibrium Impact Models at the Regional Level,” Economic Systems Research, 7(2), pp. 209–227.Google Scholar
Weyant, J.P. (2012). “Lessons Learned from Past Energy-Environmental Inter-Model Comparison Projects: With Opportunities and Challenges Remaining,” Energy Modeling Forum and Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, 175pp.Google Scholar
Weyant, J. (2015). “Contributions of Integrated Assessment Models,” draft book chapter, Stanford University, 35pp.Google Scholar
Winebrake, J.J. and Sakva, D. (2006). “An Evaluation of Errors in U.S. Energy Forecasts: 1982–2003,” Energy Policy, 34, pp. 3475–3483.Google Scholar