23 - The political challenge of linking climate change and sustainable development policies: Risks and prospects

Summary

The need to link climate change mitigation and adaptation with environmental, social, and developmental sustainability is well entrenched in the parallel political negotiations on climate change, following on from the Paris Agreement (2015) and the Sustainable Development Goals (as they have evolved after the Millennium Development Goals). The outcomes of the Paris climate change talks suggest a strong shift towards politically realistic targets for ongoing emissions cuts, even if these voluntary targets are structured via national action plans and intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs). A major review of progress towards these targets was set for 2018 and 2023, and thereafter every five years. Likewise, widespread support for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) suggests a balanced vision that may help developing states transition towards ‘green’, low-emission economies and still adapt to the loss and damage that will still be incurred due to climate change impacts down through 2050. With the hope of capping temperature rises to within or less than 1.5–2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, and emissions targeted to peak by 2030, climate change conferences through 2015–2018 provide a robust framework for further implementation of the Paris Agreement. However, the past track of environmental diplomacy suggests that serious problems lurk beneath the current consensus, and risk derailing both global emissions reductions and a truly global push towards sustainability. A successful diplomatic process may still fail to adequately reduce emissions for a less than 2°C rise, and uncertainty as to climate impact risks could result in hedging towards adaptation rather than mitigation strategies. Uneven implementation of sustainable development goals and climate adaptation frameworks could slow down both agendas. In the worst-case scenario, these goals could undercut each other, with developing countries switching to belated national development and adaptation efforts if collective action on emission targets and related funding wavers. A pluralist, multi-actor approach will continue to evolve, refining both climate change and sustainable development mechanisms over the next decade, but it still needs strong leadership from major states within the European Union and the ‘BASIC’ (Brazil, South Africa, India, China) coalition. Such approaches must reassure developing states of the benefits of sustaining emissions cuts alongside balanced implementation of the SDGs and continued use of resilient, ‘low-emission’ adaptation strategies.