2 - Chaos and Climate Emergency

Summary

Multiplying signs of a deeply stressed biosphere accompany the onset of Anthropocene conditions from about 1950. The metaphor of a ‘war with nature’ is employed to clarify the roles of strategy in survival, and of grand strategy in achieving ‘peace with nature’. The climate emergency is one dimension of a storm of ecological risks and tipping points that threaten to reverse all previous development gains. New ideas on reducing net greenhouse gas emissions are outlined, in which ‘deadline-aware’ strategies accept that further mitigation investment will be pointless after the activation of major ecological tipping points. Hence all such investments should aim to postpone runaway change and must slash net emissions very quickly, while also strengthening ecosystems and communities. This new realism is encouraged by the Extinction Rebellion, Greta Thunberg’s climate strike and other mass movements, citizens’ assemblies and the responses of governments and financial institutions, offering hope that decisive breakthroughs are becoming possible. The Covid-19-induced ‘stillpoint’ in 2020 also offers a way to think about restoring balance in unstable complex systems.