2 - THE COMING OF WAR: PLANS AND REALITIES IN 1941

Summary

What does planning mean in war? We draw up plans alone, but carry them out, so to say, together with the enemy, taking into account his counteraction.

(Marshal I. S. Konev)

INTRODUCTION

At a very high level of generality there is no difference between peacetime and wartime economic planning. In both cases the central problem remains one of adaptation of plans and goals to the resources really available and the conditions under which they may be supplied. The action of competitors, whether peaceful or warlike, is merely one of the factors conditioning the adaptive process. Both in peacetime and in time of war plans must be adaptable to the counteraction of adversaries, since their counteraction cannot be known in advance of the compilation and initiation of the plans themselves. The counteraction of adversaries can only be guessed at beforehand; forecasting it is an inherently uncertain process, and the forecast may turn out wrong. Once the adversary's counter is embarked upon and actually in progress, its purpose and direction may still remain uncertain to those who must authorise the adaptive response, if they are out of touch with those directly experiencing the adversary's action. Whether this action is peaceful or warlike - for example a trade war or a shooting war - makes no difference. The problem of adaptation to changing realities remains the same.