Myanmar in 2022: The Conflict Escalates

Summary

In the aftermath of the February 2021 military coup, Myanmar saw an unprecedented uprising across the country. The violent military crackdown on what was once a widespread, peaceful movement has generated spontaneous revolutionary violence. This rapidly escalated into a full-blown civil war as the pro-democracy movement and its newly formed People's Defence Forces (PDFs) joined together with preexisting ethnic armed organizations. For most of 2021, the balance of power remained in favour of the junta. By contrast, in 2022, this appeared to be less so. The continued escalation of conflict across the country, combined with the mobilization of resistance forces around the common goal of defeating the military dictatorship, is an indication that a return to the status quo is no longer an option. In this context, this chapter examines Myanmar's political, socio-economic and foreign affairs dimensions, and highlights the strengths and challenges of both the junta, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and the anti-coup movement. We explore how the revolutionary movement in Myanmar, or the “Spring Revolution”, gained ground in 2022 and, despite numerous weaknesses, began to represent a serious threat to the junta.1 We also examine the junta's military, political and economic actions and their consequences with a view to understanding the motivation behind these policies and decisions.

Intensifying Political and Armed Struggle

In 2022, the anti-junta movement, led by the National Unity Government (NUG), continued to strengthen its institutional structure, in particular with regard to local administration and revenue generation. Meanwhile, the State Administrative Council (SAC) took steps towards its 2023 election plans (which aim to legitimize the 2021 takeover) and intensified its violent crackdown and psychological warfare against the resistance. Looking at the competition of both actors over the allegiances of ethnic armed forces and the expansion of conflict areas, we argue that this indicates some shift in the balance of power in favour of anti-junta forces.

Political Developments in the Anti-coup Movement

While negotiations on a common political vision between the NUG and proresistance ethnic armed forces (now referred to as Ethnic Resistance Organizations, or EROs) are still under way, the anti-coup movement took steps to strengthen its institutional structures.