Political Transitions in Southeast Asia

Summary

Introduction

One could easily be pessimistic about Southeast Asia's prospects given the series of crises that hit the region in 2004. These include the onset of avian flu (coming on the heels of SARS) and the looming pandemic threat, the persistence of terrorist-related incidents, and the devastating earthquake and tsunami that caused massive loss of lives, property and livelihood. Yet, if there is something to be optimistic about it is in the number of general elections that took place in many ASEAN countries within a span of one year. It began in March 2004 with the holding of Malaysia's general elections, followed by elections in Indonesia in April that were spread over six months, and then the elections held in the Philippines in May. This was soon followed by the elections in Thailand in February 2005.

This series of elections is significant for many reasons. First, we see the emergence of new political actors who have taken over the mantle of leadership from long-serving leaders in the region. In Malaysia, Abdullah Badawi replaced long-time Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamed; and while there was no election in Singapore in 2004, there was nevertheless a changing of the guard in August 2004 with the installation of a new prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, who succeeded Goh Chok Tong. Second, despite having come after three short-lived presidents who had succeeded long-time Indonesian leader Suharto, the country's new president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was the first directly elected president of post-New Order Indonesia. The direct presidential elections have capped the sixyear process of political transition in the country toward a democratic political system. And third, the two incumbent leaders, Philippines' Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Thailand's Thaksin Shinawatra, who could still be considered as relatively new players in the region, are serving their second terms in office after their respective re-elections. Their renewed mandates have however raised some questions on the trajectory of democratic transitions in the region.