Myanmar in 2004: Why Military Rule Continues

Summary

Since it took power, the current military government of Myanmar has been beleaguered by several opposition forces. Its legitimacy has been questioned by a majority of the people, the international community, several political parties formed by the participants of the Four Eights democracy movement, and veteran politicians who have been involved in Myanmar politics since colonial days. The military's hold on the country has also been challenged by several insurgent groups. At the same time, the junta is believed to be riddled with internal power struggles, a view seemingly confirmed by the abrupt dismissal in October 2004 of the powerful intelligence chief and then Prime Minister Khin Nyunt and the discharge of his entire intelligence corps. Because Khin Nyunt was the architect of the 7-point road map² for democratic transition in Myanmar and ceasefire agreements with insurgent groups, his dismissal was accompanied by rumours that the first step of the road map, the National Convention³ (resumed in May 2004 and adjourned in July 2004), would not convene again and that the ceasefire agreements would break down, with rebels returning to the jungles to resume their armed struggle against the government. Therefore, several observers read Khin Nyunt's dismissal as a signal of instability in the junta.

Yet, although the incident did highlight internal tensions between senior officials in the government, the junta did not appear to be a government that was on the verge of collapse. Apart from detaining some senior intelligence officials, the junta was found to be conducting its business as usual in the remaining two-and-a-half months of the year. It announced that the National Convention would be resumed in mid- February 2005 and that it would abide by all ceasefire agreements. As 2004 came to an end, senior government officials publicly noted with confidence that the government would continue to rule the country without Khin Nyunt and his powerful intelligence apparatus.

Why is the junta still in power? Why did the tension between the intelligence and army units not lead to the break-up of the regime?