Southeast Asia: A Year When High Ambition Was Challenged

Summary

1997 was to be the year that ASEAN reached several goals worthy of its thirtyyear anniversary. Moving along a course set largely to achieve goals recently articulated to account for the end of the Cold War, the ASEAN members had charted out a strategic shift towards enhancing the political foundations of the Association. The elements of the new strategy included enlargement to ten members, taking a more active role in Asian regional affairs, and continuing to build national and regional resilience by stimulating domestic economic development and regional economic linkages. The strategic goal was to build on the region's remarkable run of rapid economic growth and transformation to situate the Southeast Asian countries favourably for the twenty-first century.

Early in 1997, it appeared that much of this agenda would be achieved. The prestige of ASEAN was riding high as its members continued to be the favourites of the international business and financial community. A successful meeting with the European Union was held, initiating a new and important link. Midyear economic forecasts called for continued high growth, and even increases for next year, led by returned export expansion, ending the slump of 1996. The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) had put the members at the centre of an Asia-wide vehicle for building security that was establishing its continuity and extending its geographic reach. Planning for the expansion of ASEAN through the admission of Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar was moving ahead, with Vietnam already participating fully. Regional initiatives to address some of the problems arising from successful rapid development, such as widening income disparities and continuing poverty, were set in motion. Plans for progressing towards a much more meaningful degree of economic integration were set. ASEAN seemed to be moving from success to success, building beyond the original vision of the Association as the foundation for peace and development in the region, towards a greatly enhanced role for its members in the Asian regional political and economic systems.