Southeast Asia: Trends, Developments and Challenges

Summary

Four trends have been noticeable since the end of the Cambodian conflict which are illustrative of Southeast Asia's greater interaction with the Asia- Pacific region as a whole. The first is the expansion of regionalism as ASEAN is extended to embrace all mainland Southeast Asia. ASEAN's expansion is a particular success for Jakarta in view of its long-held vision of a united Southeast Asian community including all Southeast Asian mainland states. The second is the consolidation of regionalism as ASEAN promotes the Free Trade Area (AFTA) endorsed during the Singapore Summit of January 1992. The third trend has been ASEAN's emergence as an important actor in the wider Asia-Pacific region and as a contributor to and stimulator of both security and economic multilateralism. The fourth trend has been Southeast Asia's growing vulnerability to shifts and adjustments in the relationships between the major external powers. This article will examine each trend and the emerging challenges to ASEAN in the light of developments in 1995.

The Expansion of Regionalism

Vietnam became the seventh member of ASEAN during the Twenty-eighth ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM), held in Brunei on 29–30 July 1995. Cambodia signed the Treaty of Amity and Co-operation (TAC) in January 1995, and was granted ASEAN observer status when the Cambodian National Assembly ratified the TAC on 30 June. Cambodia's accession to the TAC was formally proclaimed during the 1995 AMM. Myanmar's decision to sign the TAC was welcomed by the AMM but without the granting of observer status. According to the communiqué of 30 July, the foreign ministers regarded these events as mark- ing a “historical step toward creating a Southeast Asian community”. Cambodia and Myanmar may join ASEAN by 1997 while Laos may need more time. Laos acceded to the TAC during the Twenty-fifth ASEAN AMM which was held in Singapore in July 1992. Laotian Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs Phongsavath Boupha declared then that Laos was not yet ready for ASEAN membership and cited the limited number of English language speakers in the Foreign Ministry and the financial obligations of membership as reasons.