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5 - Effects of climate change on dynamics and stability of multiregional populations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 July 2011

By
Mark C. Andersen
Edited by
Jianguo Liu ,
Vanessa Hull ,
Anita T. Morzillo  and
John A. Wiens
Mark C. Andersen
Affiliation:
New Mexico State University
Jianguo Liu
Affiliation:
Michigan State University
Vanessa Hull
Affiliation:
Michigan State University
Anita T. Morzillo
Affiliation:
Oregon State University
John A. Wiens
Affiliation:
PRBO Conservation Science
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Summary

Climate change is one of the greatest long-term potential threats to the functional integrity of the biosphere. Although the likely effects of climate change on ecosystem function and the geographic distributions of organisms have been extensively studied, their demographic effects are less well understood. In order to examine the effects of climate change on populations in their landscape context, I integrate results from two different modeling approaches to examine the effects of climate change on the demography and dispersal of organisms. I use simple two-patch metapopulation models and more complex stochastic stage-structured multiregional models of stream fish populations. Plausible effects of climate change on dispersal rates, and on spatial population structure, may destabilize metapopulations and make them susceptible to further anthropogenic or natural perturbations. The findings suggest several hypotheses to be tested empirically, and imply that future biodiversity conservation strategies will need to account for the landscape-level effects of climate change and attendant changes in land use.

Type
Chapter
Information
Sources, Sinks and Sustainability , pp. 99 - 114
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

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