Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 August 2012
Introduction
One of the most striking patterns in ecology is broad-scale variation of species richness (e.g. Fig. 13.1). Ecologists have noted these patterns for at least two centuries (von Humboldt & Bonpland, 1807; Wallace, 1878). Since then, geographical patterns of diversity have been extensively documented (see references in Table 1 in Hawkins et al., 2003a) and numerous reviews and textbooks have discussed factors hypothesized to have generated them (Huston, 1994; Rosenzweig, 1995; Chesson, 2000).
Two distinct points of view have characterized this discussion. The first, I would characterize as the multiple substituting influences family of hypotheses. According to this view, a wide variety of factors influence richness in very context-specific manners. The second view, I will call the strong constraint family of hypotheses. These hypotheses propose that, as in physical systems, a small number of general principles exert strong constraints on the behavior of ecological systems. Thus, the propensity (sensu Popper, 1990) of ecological systems to behave in particular ways can be related to one, or a small number of variables, while the rest of the world's complexity adds a bit of noise.
To reveal my own prejudice, I believe that the goal of science is to develop predictive models of the behavior of natural systems (Peters, 1991; Rigler & Peters, 1995). A search for strong propensities, perhaps reflecting strong constraints, is a logical way to begin to approach this goal.
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