5 - Trends in fertility: what does the 20th century tell us about the 21st?

Summary

Introduction

In the 1970s, the European press was full of dire predictions of overpopulation. Over the past 300 years, the world's population had increased around ten-fold. Particularly alarming was the publication of The Limits to Growth by the Club of Rome in 1972, which outlined the Malthusian concerns of the consequences of exponential population growth. In the year of its publication, global average fertility rate was 4.5, a rate that implied the doubling of a population in 36 years. At the same time, life expectancy had increased by nearly 30 years over the previous century, causing the mortality rates to drop across the globe. As a consequence of population growth at previously unprecedented rates, the authors predicted the end of economic growth before the end of the century.

Since the publication of The Limits to Growth, the world's population has (as precisely predicted) nearly doubled in size. However, the tables seem to have turned: in Europe and parts of Asia we are now concerned with birth shortages and consequential population ageing. Birth rates are falling worldwide and family sizes are shrinking. The total fertility rate (TFR) is now less than the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman in every member state in the European Union (EU), childlessness is becoming more common and the average age at which women have their first child is nearing 30 years.