1 - The Malagasy Mystery through the Lens of Economic Growth and Development Theories

Summary

The first chapter first presents the data on the Malagasy mystery: not only has per capita GDP been trending downward since 1960 (the puzzle), but every time the country has set out on a growth path, it has been stopped in its tracks by a socio-political crisis that has shattered the hopes it raised (the paradox). The chapter uses a range of information sources (macro aggregate and micro surveys) to allow for data triangulation to underpin the diagnosis of Madagascar’s puzzle and paradox. We looked for explanations first in the economists’ toolbox, i.e. growth and development theory and its offshoots. We then sounded out a broad spectrum of possible determinants (the usual suspects) to decide whether any of them displayed dynamics tentatively specific and deficient enough to be potential suspects to explain Madagascar’s misfortune. Yet these factors generally put forward by the development theories appeared powerless to explain Madagascar’s poor long-run performance. This first sweep fails to provide satisfactory answers to our question and even adds to the veil of mystery surrounding Madagascar’s trajectory, in that most of the conditions found appear to be positive. This leads to making a foray into political economy as a potential solution to the problem.