Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T02:25:03.305Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Part III - Implications of Technology for Growth

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 October 2021

Edited by
John W. Diamond  and
George R. Zodrow
John W. Diamond
Affiliation:
Rice University, Houston
George R. Zodrow
Affiliation:
Rice University, Houston
Get access

Summary

A summary is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content.
Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Chapter
Information
Prospects for Economic Growth in the United States , pp. 113 - 170
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

References

Agrawal, Ajay, Galasso, Alberto, and Oettl, Alexander, 2017. “Roads and Innovation.” Review of Economics and Statistics 99 (3), 417–34.Google Scholar
Arrow, Kenneth, 1962. “Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention.” In Nelson, Richard R. (ed.), The Rate and Direction of Invention Activity, 609–26. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
Atkeson, Andrew, and Kehoe, Patrick, 2007. “Modeling the Transition to a New Economy: Lessons from Two Technological Revolutions.” American Economic Review 97 (1) 64–88.Google Scholar
Barro, Robert J., 1991. “Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (2), 407–43.Google Scholar
Bartelsman, Eric, Haltiwanger, John, and Scarpetta, Stefano, 2013. “Cross-Country Differences in Productivity: The Role of Allocation and Selection.” American Economic Review 103 (1), 305–34.Google Scholar
Bloom, Nicholas, Jones, Charles I., van Reenen, John, and Webb, Michael, 2017. “Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?” NBER Working Paper No. 23782. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Bloom, Nicholas, Sadun, Raffaella, and van Reenen, John, 2017. “Management As Technology.” NBER Working Paper No. 22327. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Bloom, Nicholas, and van Reenen, John, 2007. “Measuring and Explaining Management Practices Across Firms.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 122 (4), 1351–1408.Google Scholar
Bresnahan, Timothy F., Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Hitt, Lorin, 2002. “Information Technology, Workplace Organization, and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (1), 339–76.Google Scholar
Bresnahan, Timothy F., and Trajtenberg, Manuel, 1995. “General Purpose Technologies: ‘Engines of Growth’?” Journal of Econometrics, Annals of Econometrics 65 (1), 83–108.Google Scholar
Brynjolfsson, Erik, Hitt, Lorin, and Yang, Shinkyu, 2002. “Intangible Assets: Computers and Organizational Capital.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 33 (1), 137–98.Google Scholar
Brynjolfsson, Erik, and McAfee, Andrew, 2014. The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies. W.W. Norton, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Brynjolfsson, Erik, Rock, Daniel, and Syverson, Chad, 2017. “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics.” NBER Working Paper No. 24001. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Byrne, David M., Fernald, John G., and Reinsdorf, Marshall B., 2016. “Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 47 (1), 109–82.Google Scholar
Christensen, Peter, Gillingham, Kenneth, and Nordhaus, William, 2016. “Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Productivity Growth.” Working Paper. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.Google Scholar
Cogan, John F., Hubbard, Glenn, Taylor, John B., and Warsh, Kevin, 2017. “On the Prospects for Higher Economic Growth.” Working Paper. Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, CA.Google Scholar
Cowen, Tyler, 2011. The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. Penguin Group, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Cunningham, Colleen, Ederer, Florian, and Song, Ma, 2018. “Killer Acquisitions.” Working Paper. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.Google Scholar
David, Paul, 1991. “Computer and Dynamo: The Modern Productivity Paradox in a Not-Too-Distant Mirror.” In OECD, Technology and Productivity: The Challenge for Economic Policy, 315–47. OECD, Paris, France.Google Scholar
Goolsbee, Austan, Hubbard, Glenn, and Ganz, Amy, 2019. “A Policy Agenda to Develop Human Capital for the Modern Economy.” In Kearney, Melissa S. and Ganz, Amy (eds.), Expanding Economic Opportunity for More Americans, 16–36. Aspen Institute, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Gordon, Robert J., 2016. The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ and Oxford, UK.Google Scholar
Graetz, Georg, and Michaels, Guy, 2015. “Robots at Work.” Discussion Paper No. 1335. Centre for Economic Performance, London, UK.Google Scholar
Hansen, Alvin H., 1938. Full Recovery or Stagnation? W.W. Norton, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Henderson, Rebecca, 2006. “The Innovator’s Dilemma as a Problem of Organizational Competence.” Journal of Product Innovation Management 23 (1), 5–11.Google Scholar
Himel, Samuel, and Seamans, Robert, 2017. “Artificial Intelligence, Incentives to Innovate, and Competition Policy.” Antitrust Chronicle 1 (3), 1–10.Google Scholar
Holmes, Thomas J., Levine, David K., and Schmitz, James A., 2012. “Monopoly and the Incentive to Innovate When Adoption Involves Switchover Disruptions.” American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 4 (3), 1–33.Google Scholar
Hortacsu, Ali, and Syverson, Chad, 2015. “The Ongoing Evolution of U.S. Retail: A Format Tug-of-War.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 29 (4), 89–112.Google Scholar
Hubbard, Glenn, 2016. “Supporting Work, Inclusion, and Mass Prosperity.” In Strain, Michael R. (ed.), The U.S. Labor Market: Questions and Challenge for Public Policy. AEI Press, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Hubbard, Glenn, and Kane, Timothy, 2013. Balance: The Economics of Great Powers from Rome to Modern America. Simon and Schuster, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard, 1930. “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren.” In Keynes, John Maynard, Essays in Persuasion, 358–73. W.W. Norton, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Lincoln, Abraham, 1858. “Lecture on Discoveries and Inventions.” Speech to the Young Men’s Improvement Association of Bloomington, Illinois, April 6.Google Scholar
McAfee, Andrew, and Brynjolfsson, Eric, 2017. Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing Our Digital Future. W.W. Norton, New York, NY.Google Scholar
McCloskey, Deirdre N., 2016. Bourgeois Equality. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.Google Scholar
McKinsey Global Institute, 2018. Solving the Productivity Puzzle: The Role of Demand and the Promise of Digitization. McKinsey & Company, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Mokyr, Joel, 2014. “The Next Age of Invention.” City Journal 24 (1), 12–21.Google Scholar
Mokyr, Joel, Vickers, Chris, and Ziebarth, Nicolas L., 2015. “The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 29 (3), 31–50.Google Scholar
National Academy of Engineering, 2015. Making Value for America: Embracing the Future of Manufacturing, Technology, and Work. National Academies Press, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Powell, Jerome H, 2018. “Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy.” Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium on Changing Market Structure and Implications for Monetary Policy, August 23–25, Jackson Hole, WY.Google Scholar
Solow, Robert M, 1987. “We’d Better Watch Out.” New York Times Book Review, July 12, 36.Google Scholar
Summers, Lawrence H., 2013. “Why Stagnation Might Prove to Be the New Normal.” Remarks at the 14th International Monetary Fund Annual Research Conference, November 18, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Syverson, Chad, 2011. “What Determines Productivity?” Journal of Economic Literature 49 (2), 326–65.Google Scholar
Syverson, Chad, 2013. “Will History Repeat Itself? Comments on ‘Is the Information Technology Over?’” International Productivity Monitor 25 (Spring), 37–40.Google Scholar
Syverson, Chad, 2017. “Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the U.S. Productivity Slowdown.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 31 (2), 165–86.Google Scholar
Tirole, Jean, 2017. Economics for the Common Good. Princeton University Press. Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
Van Reenen, John, 2018. “Increasing Differences between Firms: Market Power and the Macro-Economy.” Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium on Changing Market Structure and Implications for Monetary Policy, August 23–25, Jackson Hole, WY.Google Scholar
Yared, Pierre, 2019. “Rising Government Debt: Causes and Solutions for a Decades-Old Trend.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 33 (2), 115–40.Google Scholar

References

Agrawal, Ajay, Gans, Joshua, and Goldfarb, Avi, 2018. Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Intelligence. Harvard Business Review Press, Boston, MA.Google Scholar
Athey, Susan, and Ellison, Glenn, 2011. “Position Auctions with Consumer Search.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 126 (3), 1213–70.Google Scholar
Baldwin, Carliss Y., and Clark, Kim B., 2000. Design Rules. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Bezos, Jeff, 2017. “2016 Letter to Shareholders.” https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/2016-letter-to-shareholders.Google Scholar
Brandt, Richard L., 2011. One Click: Jeff Bezos and the Rise of Amazon.com. Penguin Group, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Bresnahan, Timothy F., 2012. “Generality, Recombination, and Reuse.” In Lerner, Josh and Stern, Scott (eds.), The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity Revisited, 611–56. University of Chicago Press for the NBER, Chicago, IL.Google Scholar
Bresnahan, Timothy F., Davis, Jason P., and Yin, Pai-Ling, 2015. “Economic Value Creation in Mobile Applications.” In Jaffe, Adam and Jones, Benjamin (eds.), The Changing Frontier: Rethinking Science and Innovation Policy, 233–86. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Bresnahan, Timothy, and Greenstein, Shane, 1996. “Technical Progress and Co-Invention in Computing and in the Uses of Computers.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Microeconomics 27 (3), 1–83.Google Scholar
Bresnahan, Timothy F., and Trajtenberg, Manuel, 1995. “General Purpose Technologies: Engines of Growth?” Journal of Econometrics 65 (1), 83–108.Google Scholar
Bresnahan, Timothy, and Yin, Pai-Ling, 2010. “Reallocating Innovative Resources around Growth Bottlenecks.” Industrial and Corporate Change 19 (5), 1589–1627.Google Scholar
Bresnahan, Timothy, and Yin, Pai-Ling, 2017. “Adoption of New Information and Communications Technologies in the Workplace Today.” In Greenstein, Shane, Lerner, Josh, and Stern, Scott (eds.), Innovation Policy and the Economy 17 (February), 95–124. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Brynjolfsson, Erik, Rock, Daniel, and Syverson, Chad, 2017. “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics.” NBER Working Paper No. 24001. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Chui, Michael, Manyika, James, Miremadi, Mehdi, Henke, Nicolaus, Chung, Rita, Nel, Pieter, and Malhotra, Sankalp, 2018. “Notes from the AI Frontier: Applications and Value of Deep Learning.” Discussion Paper. McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey & Company, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Clark, Jack, 2015. “Google Turning Its Lucrative Web Search Over to AI Machines.” Bloomberg Business, October 26, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-26/google-turning-its-lucrative-web-search-over-to-ai-machines.Google Scholar
Cockburn, Iain M., Henderson, Rebecca, and Stern, Scott, 2018. “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Innovation.” NBER Working Paper No. 24449. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Cortada, James, 2004. The Digital Hand. Volume 1. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.Google Scholar
Finnegan, Matthew, 2018. “Report: AI Assistants and Chatbots Gain Traction in the Enterprise.” Computerworld, April 4, www.computerworld.com/article/3268075/ai-assistants-and-chatbots-gain-traction-in-business.html.Google Scholar
Gartner Research, 2018a. “Gartner Says Global Artificial Intelligence Business Value to Reach $1.2 Trillion in 2018: Customer Experience Represents the Majority of AI Business Value Through 2020,” April 25, www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2018-04-25-gartner-says-global-artificial-intelligence-business-value-to-reach-1-point-2-trillion-in-2018#:~:text=Customer%20Experience%20Represents%20the%20Majority,reach%20%243.9%20trillion%20in%202022.Google Scholar
Gartner Research, 2018b. “Market Guide for Conversational Platforms.” Gartner Research, Stamford, CT.Google Scholar
Goldfarb, Avi, 2014. “What Is Different about Online Advertising?” Review of Industrial Organization 44 (2), 115–29.Google Scholar
Helpman, Elhanan, and Trajtenberg, Manuel, 1998. “Diffusion of General Purpose Technologies.” In Helpman, Elhanan (ed.), General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth, 85–120. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Hennessey, John L., and Patterson, David A., 2012. Computer Architecture: A Quantitative Approach. Elsevier, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
McCarthy, Caroline, 2006. “Facebook’s Zuckerberg: ‘We Really Messed This One Up’.” CNET, September 8, www.cnet.com/news/facebooks-zuckerberg-we-really-messed-this-one-up/.Google Scholar
McGee, Matt, 2013. “EdgeRank Is Dead: Facebook’s News Feed Algorithm Now Has Close to 100 K Weight Factors.” MarketingLand, August 16, https://marketingland.com/edgerank-is-dead-facebooks-news-feed-algorithm-now-has-close-to-100k-weight-factors-55908.Google Scholar
Murray, Gerry, 2018. “IDC’s ‘Next Tech’ Survey of Marketing and MarTech in Consumer Packaged Goods Manufacturers.” IDC, Framingham, MA, www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=US43613518.Google Scholar
Oremus, Will, 2018. “When Will Alexa Know Everything? A Conversation with the Chief of Amazon’s Voice Assistant on What Alexa Hears, What She Remembers, and How She’s Learning.” Slate, April 6, https://slate.com/technology/2018/04/alexa-chief-al-lindsay-isnt-worried-about-users-privacy-concerns.html.Google Scholar
Rollings, Mike, 2018. “Deliver Artificial Intelligence Business Value: A Gartner Trend Insight Report.” Gartner Research, Stamford, CT.Google Scholar
Romer, Paul M, 1986. “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 94 (5), 1002–37.Google Scholar
Rosenberg, Nathan, 1997. “Uncertainty and Technical Change.” In Landau, Ralph, Taylor, Timothy, and Wright, Gavin (eds.), The Mosaic of Economic Growth, 334–56. Stanford University Press, Redwood City, CA.Google Scholar
Rosenberg, Nathan, and Trajtenberg, Manuel, 2004. “A General-Purpose Technology at Work: The Corliss Steam Engine in the Late-Nineteenth-Century United States.” Journal of Economic History 64 (1), 61–99.Google Scholar
Schubmehl, David, 2017. “IDC Market Glance: Cognitive/AI Systems, Search, and Content Analytics.” IDC, Framingham, MA.Google Scholar
Simon, Herbert, 1962. “The Architecture of Complexity.” Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 106 (6), 467–82.Google Scholar
Taddy, Matt, 2018. “The Technological Elements of Artificial Intelligence.” NBER Working Paper No. 24301. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Trajtenberg, Manuel, 2018. “AI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective.” NBER Working Paper No. 24245. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Turing, Alan M., 1950. “Computing Machinery and Intelligence.” Mind 59 (236), 433–60.Google Scholar
Varian, Hal, 2007. “Position Auctions.” International Journal of Industrial Organization 25 (6), 1163–78.Google Scholar
Walker, Mike J., Andrews, Whit, and Cearley, David W., 2018. “Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018: AI Foundation.” Gartner Research, Stamford, CT.Google Scholar
Zuboff, Shoshana, 1988. In the Age of the Smart Machine: The Future of Work and Power. Basic Books, New York, NY.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×