5 - The Third Arrow of Abenomics: Est. in 2013 – or 2007?

Summary

Abenomics, the package of economic policies adopted by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe since 2013, is commonly credited with bringing the Japanese economy out of deflation and two decades of stagnant growth. Abenomics consists of three arrows: the aggressive monetary policy; the flexible fiscal policy; and structural reforms for growth. The "third arrow" of Abenomics consists of wide-ranging deregulation and promotion in various sector to raise productivity. Conventional wisdom is that the third arrow of Abenomics started in 2013, along with the first and second arrows. This paper argues that many of ideas and implementations that are credited to the third arrow of 2013 originated in the discussion and decision of the first Abe administration of 2006–2007, followed by the Fukuda administration of 2007–2008. The prime minister’s Council of Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP) played the key role in the 2006–2008 reform efforts. It took more than five years for the reform efforts and decisions made in 2006–2008 to bear fruit.