6 - Housing and the future

Summary

This book has been built around a big open question: how do housing markets affect economies, societies and political systems? To find an answer, we began by identifying a key difference between European housing systems – the degree to which they are financialized and commodified. The ensuing chapters then highlighted the channels through which financialization and commodification affect social and economic outcomes. The evidence uncovered strongly suggests that market- driven housing systems – especially those where financial markets play a major role – experience greater macroeconomic volatility and inequality.

With these links identified, we turned to the politics of housing policy. The goal was to understand whether differences between national housing systems affect political relationships and policy debate. It seems that they do, with housing policies taking on more political salience in countries where housing outcomes are volatile, precarious and unequal – all outcomes we previously connected to financialization and commodification. Moreover, it appears that parties take approaches calibrated to protect the housing interests of their typical supporter. In sum, it seems highly plausible that the financialization and commodification of housing – through the introduction of precarity and inequality – separate the interests of older and more rural voters from the interests of younger and more urban voters. Confusing things further, a new breed of political movement has also used the topic of housing to critique migration policy.

If housing contributes to greater political divergence between voters across dividing lines defined by age, location, wealth and attitudes towards migrants, it would help explain some of the broader political patterns we are seeing in Europe today. Chief among these is the collapse of centrist parties, especially the centre-left. The proliferation of politically salient divides makes it harder for any one party to satisfy all of a voter’s preferences. Instead, we see smaller and narrower parties collectively overtaking centrist parties trying to maintain a big-tent “all-of-the-above” approach. As Chapter 5 revealed, this pressure is greater in a financialized system that generates new winners and losers (like the Netherlands) than it is in a less-financialized one (like Germany).