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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 09 August 2023
In the face of European public opposition and American coordination problems, the TTIP negotiations were struggling, if not on the ropes, in mid-2016. The second half of 2016, however, saw two body blows land on the negotiations. On 23 June, the British public voted by 52 per cent to 48 per cent to leave the European Union. On 8 November, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States on a populist, vigorously anti-trade agenda. Both of these developments dramatically undermined the prospects for reaching agreement on the broad agenda launched in 2013.
Even before the Brexit vote and Trump’s election, officials and observers on both sides of the Atlantic had anticipated that TTIP negotiations would eff ectively halt for the first half to three-quarters of 2017. Any new US administration takes time to find its feet, and the USTR tends not to be a high-priority appointment. In addition, the French presidential elections in April/May and parliamentary elections in June, and the German elections in September were expected to preoccupy Europe. Brexit and Trump’s election, however, have had a more profound effect than simply pausing the talks.
In January 2017, Peter Navarro, the head of Trump’s National Trade Council, said that the TTIP negotiations had been “killed”. European officials were marginally more optimistic. In December 2016, EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström described the negotiations as “in the freezer”. The metaphor of the freezer suggests that the negotiations might resume later in the Trump administration. As of the time of writing (June 2017), the administration had not taken a public position on TTIP. This chapter considers how the two developments have impacted the negotiations and argues that TTIP, as it was conceived, is dead.
The UK bows out
On 29 March 2017, the United Kingdom formally submitted its intention to leave the EU. The UK’s decision has two main implications for the TTIP negotiations, both of which reduce the likelihood of a successful conclusion.
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