9 - Seeing beyond the hype: what the Internet teaches us about the development of nanotechnology

Summary

Introduction

In the following, we introduce two frameworks for the analysis of technology development: the hype cycle and the S-curve. These are used to make a comparison between two general-purpose technologies: the development of the Internet during the last decade, and the current state of nanotechnology development. The analysis provides evidence that we are at the start of a period in which nanotechnology will begin to have a significant economic impact, a period labelled “Nanotech 1.0.”

Perception and performance

The general level of interest toward a new technology typically evolves through a number of phases ranging from overenthusiasm (hype) to subsequent disappointment. This is described by the hype cycle (see Figure 9.1), first developed by Gartner in 1995 [1]. The hype cycle employs some acute insights into human behavior to characterize how perception relates to the actual maturity of a new technology.

The hype cycle begins with a breakthrough phase that may be the first description of a new technology, the first research results suggesting the existence of a phenomenon, or the first generation of a product. This technology trigger catalyzes interest which increases rapidly and soon the publicity grows out of proportion to the true state of development. This overenthusiasm culminates in a so-called peak of inflated expectations, at which point it is realized that the technology is unlikely to be able to satisfy these high expectations in the short term. Interest falls rapidly and the technology quickly becomes unfashionable, entering a state called the trough of disillusionment.

Yet whilst the general perception is that the technology has failed to meet the expectations, in reality development continues with further efforts to understand the benefits and practical applications of the technology.