Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Introduction
- Participants
- Non-Participant Contributors
- Part 1 Transmissible diseases with long development times and vaccination strategies
- Part 2 Dynamics of immunity (development of disease within individuals)
- Part 3 Population heterogeneity (mixing)
- Modeling heterogeneous mixing in infectious disease dynamics
- Behavior change and non-homogeneous mixing
- Sources and use of empirical observations to characterise networks of sexual behaviour
- Invited Discussion
- Invited Discussion
- Per-contact probabilities of heterosexual transmission of HIV, estimated from partner study data
- Heterosexual spread of HIV with biased sexual partner selection
- Dynamic simulation of sexual partner networks: which network properties are important in sexually transmitted disease (STD) epidemiology?
- The spread of an STD on a dynamic network of sexual contacts
- Network measures for epidemiology
- Spatial heterogeneity and the spread of infectious diseases
- Data analysis for estimating risk factor effects using transmission models
- Homosexual role behaviour and the spread of HIV
- Homogeneity tests for groupings of AIDS patient classifications
- Risk factors for heterosexual transmission of HIV
- The effect of behavioural change on the prediction of R0 in the transmission of AIDS
- The saturating contact rate in epidemic models
- A Liapunov function approach to computing R0
- Stochastic models for the eradication of poliomyelitis: minimum population size for polio virus persistence
- Part 4 Consequences of treatment interventions
- Part 5 Prediction
Per-contact probabilities of heterosexual transmission of HIV, estimated from partner study data
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 04 August 2010
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Introduction
- Participants
- Non-Participant Contributors
- Part 1 Transmissible diseases with long development times and vaccination strategies
- Part 2 Dynamics of immunity (development of disease within individuals)
- Part 3 Population heterogeneity (mixing)
- Modeling heterogeneous mixing in infectious disease dynamics
- Behavior change and non-homogeneous mixing
- Sources and use of empirical observations to characterise networks of sexual behaviour
- Invited Discussion
- Invited Discussion
- Per-contact probabilities of heterosexual transmission of HIV, estimated from partner study data
- Heterosexual spread of HIV with biased sexual partner selection
- Dynamic simulation of sexual partner networks: which network properties are important in sexually transmitted disease (STD) epidemiology?
- The spread of an STD on a dynamic network of sexual contacts
- Network measures for epidemiology
- Spatial heterogeneity and the spread of infectious diseases
- Data analysis for estimating risk factor effects using transmission models
- Homosexual role behaviour and the spread of HIV
- Homogeneity tests for groupings of AIDS patient classifications
- Risk factors for heterosexual transmission of HIV
- The effect of behavioural change on the prediction of R0 in the transmission of AIDS
- The saturating contact rate in epidemic models
- A Liapunov function approach to computing R0
- Stochastic models for the eradication of poliomyelitis: minimum population size for polio virus persistence
- Part 4 Consequences of treatment interventions
- Part 5 Prediction
Summary
Introduction
The probability with which the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is transmitted from an infected to a susceptible individual during the course of one or more unprotected sexual contacts plays an important role in models of the AIDS epidemic. Several studies found no association between the number of contacts with a given partner and transmission, and some modellers have therefore preferred to use transmission rates per partnership rather than per contact. However, an analysis of data from the California Partners' Study (Padian et al. 1990) indicated the presence of an association, although not consistent with a constant probability of transmission per contact. Similar data from a European study have been analyzed to investigate further the relationship between the number of unprotected sexual contacts and the probability of transmission of HIV.
Methods
Data on 563 HIV-infected subjects (index cases) and their stable heterosexual partners were collected at study entry (between March 1987 and March 1991) and at 6-monthly intervals thereafter (European Study Group on Heterosexual Transmission of HIV 1992). For each couple, the number of unprotected sexual contacts was estimated using the reported frequency of contacts and of condom use, both before and after any reported change in behaviour, together with an estimate of the length of the period during which the partner was at risk. This latter was determined as the duration of the relationship prior to the date of HIV test of the partner and from either the date of infection of the index case, when known (rarely the case), or January 1982 (or one of several alternative dates).
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Models for Infectious Human DiseasesTheir Structure and Relation to Data, pp. 271 - 273Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 1996