Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Introduction
- Participants
- Non-Participant Contributors
- Part 1 Transmissible diseases with long development times and vaccination strategies
- Part 2 Dynamics of immunity (development of disease within individuals)
- Part 3 Population heterogeneity (mixing)
- Modeling heterogeneous mixing in infectious disease dynamics
- Behavior change and non-homogeneous mixing
- Sources and use of empirical observations to characterise networks of sexual behaviour
- Invited Discussion
- Invited Discussion
- Per-contact probabilities of heterosexual transmission of HIV, estimated from partner study data
- Heterosexual spread of HIV with biased sexual partner selection
- Dynamic simulation of sexual partner networks: which network properties are important in sexually transmitted disease (STD) epidemiology?
- The spread of an STD on a dynamic network of sexual contacts
- Network measures for epidemiology
- Spatial heterogeneity and the spread of infectious diseases
- Data analysis for estimating risk factor effects using transmission models
- Homosexual role behaviour and the spread of HIV
- Homogeneity tests for groupings of AIDS patient classifications
- Risk factors for heterosexual transmission of HIV
- The effect of behavioural change on the prediction of R0 in the transmission of AIDS
- The saturating contact rate in epidemic models
- A Liapunov function approach to computing R0
- Stochastic models for the eradication of poliomyelitis: minimum population size for polio virus persistence
- Part 4 Consequences of treatment interventions
- Part 5 Prediction
Heterosexual spread of HIV with biased sexual partner selection
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 04 August 2010
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Introduction
- Participants
- Non-Participant Contributors
- Part 1 Transmissible diseases with long development times and vaccination strategies
- Part 2 Dynamics of immunity (development of disease within individuals)
- Part 3 Population heterogeneity (mixing)
- Modeling heterogeneous mixing in infectious disease dynamics
- Behavior change and non-homogeneous mixing
- Sources and use of empirical observations to characterise networks of sexual behaviour
- Invited Discussion
- Invited Discussion
- Per-contact probabilities of heterosexual transmission of HIV, estimated from partner study data
- Heterosexual spread of HIV with biased sexual partner selection
- Dynamic simulation of sexual partner networks: which network properties are important in sexually transmitted disease (STD) epidemiology?
- The spread of an STD on a dynamic network of sexual contacts
- Network measures for epidemiology
- Spatial heterogeneity and the spread of infectious diseases
- Data analysis for estimating risk factor effects using transmission models
- Homosexual role behaviour and the spread of HIV
- Homogeneity tests for groupings of AIDS patient classifications
- Risk factors for heterosexual transmission of HIV
- The effect of behavioural change on the prediction of R0 in the transmission of AIDS
- The saturating contact rate in epidemic models
- A Liapunov function approach to computing R0
- Stochastic models for the eradication of poliomyelitis: minimum population size for polio virus persistence
- Part 4 Consequences of treatment interventions
- Part 5 Prediction
Summary
We use a deterministic model to study heterosexual HIV transmission. We focus on questions related to sexual partner selection across risk levels and the sensitivity of the model to the differences in infectivity between men and women. We neglect transmission into this purely heterosexual subpopulation from people who have been infected through other means, such as intravenous drug use or sex between men. As well, we neglect age, migration, and many other important features of the epidemic.
Modeling studies have shown that the AIDS epidemic is very sensitive to both the biological aspects of HIV infection and the human behaviors that spread HIV. They have demonstrated that the epidemic is sensitive to subtle features of the biology of HIV and human behavior, including the distribution of times from infection to AIDS, changes in infectiousness with duration of infection, and the distribution of partner acquisition-rates in the population (Hyman and Stanley 1989).
The male and female at-risk populations are divided into uninfected people, those infected with HIV but who have not yet developed AIDS, and the infecteds that have progressed to AIDS. We assume that the major characteristic that affects the probability of infection is the partner-acquisition rate, and distribute each of these populations according to a risk variable which determines this rate. NonAIDS infecteds are also distributed according to their duration of infection, and AIDS cases are distributed according to the duration of time since their diagnosis. People mature into a given risk group. They may change behavior, switching from one risk group to another.
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- Models for Infectious Human DiseasesTheir Structure and Relation to Data, pp. 274 - 277Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 1996