Book contents
- Looking Ahead
- Looking Ahead
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Figures
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Part I Setting the Stage
- Part II Psychological Theories
- Chapter 4 Mind Reading
- Chapter 5 Reinforcing and Connecting
- Chapter 6 Accessing the Remainders of Mental Representations and Filling in the Gaps
- Chapter 7 Implicit Priming and Active Forecasting
- Chapter 8 Mental Shortcuts
- Chapter 9 Inferences about Others and Their Mental States
- Chapter 10 Continuous Cycles of Perceiving, Acting, and Adjusting
- Chapter 11 Event Representations of How the World Works
- Chapter 12 Moving Pictures in the Head
- Part III Mathematical Theories
- Part IV Neurobiological Theories
- Part V The Future of Prediction
- Notes
- Index
- References
Chapter 8 - Mental Shortcuts
Prediction Involves Simple Heuristics
from Part II - Psychological Theories
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 20 March 2025
Book contents
- Looking Ahead
- Looking Ahead
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Figures
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Part I Setting the Stage
- Part II Psychological Theories
- Chapter 4 Mind Reading
- Chapter 5 Reinforcing and Connecting
- Chapter 6 Accessing the Remainders of Mental Representations and Filling in the Gaps
- Chapter 7 Implicit Priming and Active Forecasting
- Chapter 8 Mental Shortcuts
- Chapter 9 Inferences about Others and Their Mental States
- Chapter 10 Continuous Cycles of Perceiving, Acting, and Adjusting
- Chapter 11 Event Representations of How the World Works
- Chapter 12 Moving Pictures in the Head
- Part III Mathematical Theories
- Part IV Neurobiological Theories
- Part V The Future of Prediction
- Notes
- Index
- References
Summary
People use fast and simple mental shortcuts for their predictions rather than making weighed assessments and rational decisions based on huge amounts of data. Heuristics are a cognitively cheap and efficient way to solve complex or novel problems because large amounts of the information available in the environment can be ignored.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Looking AheadThe New Science of the Predictive Mind, pp. 74 - 85Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2025
References
Further Reading
Bodenhausen, G. V. (1990). Stereotypes as judgmental heuristics: Evidence of circadian variations in discrimination. Psychological Science, 1(5), 319–322.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burns, J. G. (2005). Impulsive bees forage better: The advantage of quick, sometimes inaccurate foraging decisions. Animal Behaviour, 6(70), e1–e5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., & Brighton, H. (2009). Homo heuristicus: Why biased minds make better inferences. Topics in Cognitive Science, 1(1), 107–143.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed