7 - New Challenges for the Shrewd Sheriff

Summary

This chapter assesses whether, and to what extent, the mechanisms that underlie this book’s theory still operate in relation to two specific challenges in the current geopolitical landscape: (a) the rise of strategic competition from China and Russia and (b) the rise of nationalist and populist movements and parties in many partner nations. The chapter shows that for now any ambitious leaders who seek to replace the incumbents in their countries can still count on the fact that the United States continues to command large reservoirs of support among their fellow citizens, despite the clout that a rising China and a revanchist Russia may elicit. It also shows that populist parties are not by default anti-international or anti-US as long as aligning with the United States provides a pathway to political power. Hence, the prospects for the US world order might be brighter than usually imagined for no other reason than the United States can still impact the political success of incumbents and potential successors alike in the partner nations.