7 - Conclusions and Aspirations

Summary

While heavy-duty computational methods have revolutionized much empirical work in political science, computational analysis has yet to have much any impact on theoretical accounts of politics – in contrast to the situation in many of the natural sciences. We set here out to map a path forward in computational social science. Analyzing the complex and deductively intractable “governance cycle” that plays out in the high-dimensional issue spaces of parliamentary systems, we use two different computational approaches. One models functionally rational politicians who deploy rules of thumb to navigate their complex environment. The other deploys an artificial intelligence algorithm which systematic learns, from massively repeated self-play, to find near-optimal strategies. Future work made possible by greater computational firepower would enable better AI, more realistic ABMs, and the modeling of logrolling under the conditions of incomplete information which characterize most real-world bargaining and negotiation.