4 - The Political Economy of Chinese Finance

Summary

Chapter 4 employs an originally constructed data set, the China Global Finance Index, to conduct cross-national tests spanning eighteen Latin American countries from 1990 to 2017. The index characterizes Chinese policy loans by their ?nancing channel (state-to-state vs. market-based) for each national-level investment project.The chapter ?nds that China’s state-to-state loans, as a share of a country’s external public debt, are positively correlated with budget de?cits, supporting the primary hypothesis that China’s patient capital expands governments’ ?scal policy space. In exchange for this lack of policy conditionality, however, policymakers tend to have more extensive commercial conditionality. Notably, when Chinese ?nancing is instead directly booked with corporate enterprises through private procurement in the marketplace, these commercial conditions are less extensive. China’s patient capital behaves more like long-term equity capital given the underlying private sector competition promoted by domestic procurement laws. National governments do not gain additional ?scal space and are more likely to comply with policy conditionality.