8 - Conclusion: A Dynamic Creditor-Debtor Relationship

Summary

This book’s macroeconomic analysis suggests Chinese ?nancing could o?er nations a development opportunity by exploiting Western ?nance’s Achilles's heel: the maturity mismatch between the capital market’s short-term ?nancing and debtor nations’ long-term development goals. Chinese policy banks have the capacity to ?nance big-ticket public infrastructure projects over a long-term horizon. However, Chinese capital also has its drawbacks given its tendency to secure its lending with microeconomic ties or commercial conditions embedded in its loan contracts.Popular attention has also focused on the question of whether Chinese lending is a form of "debt-trap" diplomacy used as a coercive economic tool to acquire long-run strategic assets. Rather than debt-trap diplomacy, however, this book argues, China’s tendency to invest in maximizing long-run markets rather than short-run profits has at times ensnarled its policy banks in creditor traps where they must lend defensively to recover their initial investments. Chapter 8 also examines how these creditor-debtor relationships have changed over time and how they are likely to continue to evolve in a post-coronavirus world.