5 - Playing the Odds

Summary

One of the most powerful tools a designer can use when developing games is probability, using random chance to determine the outcome of player actions or to build the environment in which play occurs. The use of luck, however, is not without its pitfalls, and designers should be aware of the tradeoffs involved – what chance can add to the experience and when it can be counterproductive.

Failing at Probability

One challenge with using randomness is that humans are notoriously poor at evaluating probability accurately. A common example is the gambler’s fallacy, which is the belief that odds will even out over time. If the roulette wheel comes up black five times in a row, players often believe that the odds of it coming up black again are quite small, even though clearly the streak makes no difference whatsoever. Conversely, people also see streaks where none actually exist – the shooter with a “hot hand” in basketball, for example, is a myth. Studies show that, if anything, a successful shot actually predicts a subsequent miss.