49 - The Deuce Position And Najib's Incumbency Advantage

Summary

The coming into being of a steady two-party system in Malaysia is often thought of as a necessary step in democratic development. But we have to remind ourselves that the process itself, the detailed dynamics of that transformation, is not a given matter.

There are many ways to skin a cat, and there are many ways for Malaysia to become a country where open political competition is a norm. even now when the polarity has become so obvious, and so obviously contentious and deep.

To be sure, we are talking about coalitions, and in both cases – the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat – the marriages are largely of convenience.

In many ways, therefore, there is a stand-off in Malaysian politics where both sides, despite their best efforts at putting on a united front, do not seem able to make serious inroads into the position of the other side. In such a deuce situation, the advantage of incumbency becomes a major factor to consider.

The national budgets for 2012 and 2013 have both been geared towards electoral concerns, and notwithstanding social media and Internet news sites, the government still controls the print media and television networks. This is alongside the enormous resources that are available to the federal government, which have often been used as much for policy purposes as for partisan campaign reasons.

And yet, this 50-50 situation is not a stable one. Today, as the 13th general election approaches, the great challenge to this largely peninsula-based division comes from East Malaysia.

The neat divisive dimensions that we are so used to when studying Peninsular Malaysia are not only undermined by the Sabahans and the Sarawakians; they are actually becoming outmoded. And it is, therefore, the challenges to basic dimensions of socio-political life and thought in the country that we should be paying greater attention to.

We are dealing with a deep paradigmatic shift, not just a simple challenge to the race-based party coalition by another that is less race based.

As in 1969, it was the failure in 2008 of Chinese-based parties within the ruling coalition to harness votes for the BN that led to serious reversals in popular support.