2 - Disaggregating the Violence Trends

Summary

The Changing Rates of Violence in the U.S.

the period from 1980 to 1998 has seen some sharp swings in the rate of violence in the United States. The homicide rate in 1980 was at a peak value of 10.2 per 100,000 population, and by 1985 it had fallen to a trough of 7.9. It then climbed a full 24 percent to a peak of 9.8 in 1991, and has been declining markedly since then, reaching a level of 6.3 in 1998, a level that is lower than any annual rate since 1967. The rate of robbery has followed a very similar pattern, oscillating since 1972 between rates of 200 and 250 per 100,000 population, reaching its peaks and troughs within one year of the peaks and troughs of the murder trends. It has also displayed a steady decline since its 1991 peak, and its 1998 rate of 165.2 is lower than any experienced since 1969. These patterns are depicted in Figure 2.1.

This chapter focuses primarily on homicide (the ultimate violent act) and secondarily on robbery (the taking of property by force or threat of force) as the principal indicators of violence. In homicide, there is usually a body to be explained, and homicides typically involve intensive police investigation. Robbery is also a relatively well-defined crime and is reported to the police by the victim over one-half the time.