5 - Calibration and Validation

Summary

This chapter elaborates on the calibration and validation procedures for the model. First, we describe our calibration strategy in which a customised optimisation algorithm makes use of a multi-objective function, preventing the loss of indicator-specific error information. Second, we externally validate our model by replicating two well-known statistical patterns: (1) the skewed distribution of budgetary changes and (2) the negative relationship between development and corruption. Third, we internally validate the model by showing that public servants who receive more positive spillovers tend to be less efficient. Fourth, we analyse the statistical behaviour of the model through different tests: validity of synthetic counterfactuals, parameter recovery, overfitting, and time equivalence. Finally, we make a brief reference to the literature on estimating SDG networks.