3 - Adapting to a Changing Climate

Summary

INTRODUCTION

The climate is changing inexorably. Given the international diversity of interests and priorities, there is a real risk that an internationally coordinated greenhouse gas policy will fail to get off the ground, or at least to an adequate degree; we shall look at this in more detail in the following chapters. But even if these efforts are successful, emission reductions cannot halt the warming up of the Earth. Adaptation to a changing climate will therefore be necessary whatever happens.

From the point of view of adaptation, climate change is a regional problem: its effects occur everywhere, but they are felt locally and differ from one locality to the next. The fruits of adaptation efforts are also enjoyed at local level. Mobilising stakeholders is therefore easier than with a greenhouse gas policy, which requires international coordination in order to curb the ‘free rider’ effect. On the other hand, the costs of adaptation can vary widely at local level; A (Dutch or European) policy to distribute these costs fairly therefore demands a degree of international coordination.

This chapter is built up as follows. Section 3.2 summarises both the global and Dutch adaptation agendas from the perspective of policy relevance. These summaries show that the relevant adaptation issues relate mainly to water management. Adaptation measures in relation to water management place demands on the already scarce space; this is the subject of section 3.3. In the light of this, these measures are weighed against other spatial functions. In addition to a technical problem, therefore, there is also an administrative problem; this is the subject of section 3.4.

THE POLICY AGENDA FOR ADAPTATION

Global consequences of climate change

The consequences of climate change will probably become greater as the rise in global temperatures progresses. Those consequences are expected to show regional variation. Hitz and Smith (2004) bring together the results of a large number of studies on climate change; most studies of the consequences of climate change leave unanswered the question of whether the influence of climate change dominates. The extraction of natural resources by human beings also generally has far-reaching consequences for the natural environment. Some of the problems that could result from climate change are thus not new.