5 - Predicting Climate

Summary

The fundamental difference between weather prediction and climate prediction is explained, using a “nature versus nurture” analogy. To predict weather, we start from initial conditions of the atmosphere and run the weather forecast model. To predict climate, the initial conditions matter less, but we need boundary conditions, such as the angle of the sun or the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which control the greenhouse effect. Charles David Keeling began measuring carbon dioxide in the late 1950s, and found that its concentration was steadily increasing. Carbon dioxide concentrations for the past 800,000 years can also be measured using ice cores that contain trapped air. These ice core data show that the rise in carbon dioxide concentrations measured by Keeling was unprecedented. Manabe, and another scientist, Jim Hansen, used climate models to predict that increasing carbon dioxide could cause global warming.