2 - Tocqueville on 1789: Preconditions, Precipitants, and Triggers

Summary

INTRODUCTION

In his discussion of the causes of the English Revolution, Lawrence Stone distinguishes among preconditions (1529-1629), precipitants (1629-39), and triggers (1640-42). The preconditions ''made some form of redistribution of political power almost inevitable [ . . . ], but whether these changes would come about by peaceful evolution, political upheaval, or force of arms was altogether uncertain.'' Later, the ''precipitants of the 1630s turned the prospects of a political breakdown from a possibility into a probability,'' whereas the trigger was provided by ''a sequence of short-term, even fortuitous events which turned the probability into a certainty.'' The dates are of course somewhat arbitrary, but indicate points of inflexion in the likelihood that observers, whether writing at the time or with the benefit of hindsight, might assign to a revolutionary outcome.

One can try to make a similar distinction with regard to Tocqueville's writings on the French Revolution. The preconditions, discussed in Book II of the Ancien Régime (AR), were established over the period from 1439 to 1750. The precipitants, which are the topic of Book III, developed from 1750 to 1787. The triggering events, which are discussed in the notes for Books I and II of the planned second volume, occurred from 1787 to 1789. Although roughly adequate, this periodization is not quite true to his analysis, which points to a further inflexion point around 1770. In Ch.III.i of AR he points to 1750 (''vers le milieu du siècle'') as a watershed, marked by the appearance and intellectual hegemony of a certain kind of abstract philosophical radicalism.