18 - Socio-Economic Consequences of Increased Longevity in Contemporary Populations

Summary

Increase in life expectancy will affect future welfare through changes in the stock of human capital and financial wealth. In projecting these changes it is important to differentiate between the direct demographic effect (a change in the population age structure) and the indirect behavioural change (a change in age-specific economic characteristics). Using a multi-country dynamic (general equilibrium) economic model, this chapter assesses the effects of increasing life expectancy on economic growth and inequality in European countries. The economic model accounts for both the direct effect of changes in the age structure of the population, given the economic characteristics, and the indirect effect of population changes on age-specific economic behaviour in a globalized economy. Projections for the period 2020-2100 show that future life expectancy improvements: (1) will have a negative impact on consumption and output per capita; (2) will negatively affect the accumulation of assets (more so in high-income compared to middle-income European countries due to the more generous pension systems in high-income countries); and (3) will lead to an increase in the intergenerational income inequality due to the fall in asset income at old age. However, it also finds that more generous old-age public transfer systems mitigate the negative impact of life expectancy gains on inequality.