5 - Improving the Resolution of Radiocarbon Dating by Statistical Analysis

Summary

Abstract

Radiocarbon dating of individual samples only yields limited chronological precision (typically of the order of 150–200 years for 95% confidence). This is in large part due to the complex nature of the calibration curve. Only by using large numbers of radiocarbon determinations together can we hope to resolve chronological issues at the sub-century level. Interpretation of such datasets is very difficult to do accurately by eye and for this reason statistical methods are needed. The methods most often employed are those of Bayesian analysis. Such methods do indeed allow us to improve our precision beyond that which is possible for single age determinations by radiocarbon but, critically, they also allow us to see the limitations in our data. In cases where statistical analysis shows that the radiocarbon measurements cannot resolve the chronological issues we need to accept that we must rely on other forms of archaeological information and interpretation.

Introduction

The conference at Yarnton was very closely focussed on specific chronological issues in the Iron Age of the Levant. These issues are of critical importance to the understanding of the interrelationship of the polities of the region and would be of academic interest in any other region under archaeological investigation. However, in this case the arguments are given even more prominence because of the implications for our interpretation of the nature of King Solomon's political impact.