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14 - Market forces

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 October 2009

Lawrence H. Officer
Affiliation:
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
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Summary

Definition of regime efficiency

Two concepts of gold-standard efficiency are explored in this study. Market efficiency, involving the behavior of private parties in response to the profit opportunities afforded by the gold standard, was the topic of part V. Gold-point arbitrage (GPA) market efficiency was tested empirically for three time periods: 1890–1906, 1925–31, and 1950–66. Uncovered and covered interest arbitrage (UIA, CIA) and forward speculation (FS) efficiency were tested only for 1925–31.

Related to market efficiency but distinct is regime efficiency, pertaining to the probability of maintenance of the gold standard with the existing mint parity. This type of efficiency will be studied empirically in detail only for 1925–31 but as a general phenomenon for all periods over 1791–1931, 1950–66.

The criterion of regime efficiency is that private participants and central banks behave in such a way that the probability of maintenance of the gold standard is, ideally, maximized, or at least enhanced. The regime efficiency considered is short run in nature, encompassing only the horizon of the interest arbitrageurs and forward speculators. It is certainly true that long-run regime efficiency of the dollar–sterling gold standard in 1925–31 was low – because of (1) Britain's overvalued currency relative not just to the dollar but also to the undervalued currencies of Britain's trading competitors (France and Belgium), (2) Britain's downwardly rigid wages, unfavorable shifts in comparative advantage, and capital-account weakness, and (3) the precariousness of short-term foreign funds in London.

Type
Chapter
Information
Between the Dollar-Sterling Gold Points
Exchange Rates, Parity and Market Behavior
, pp. 255 - 262
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1996

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  • Market forces
  • Lawrence H. Officer, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
  • Book: Between the Dollar-Sterling Gold Points
  • Online publication: 13 October 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511559723.015
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  • Market forces
  • Lawrence H. Officer, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
  • Book: Between the Dollar-Sterling Gold Points
  • Online publication: 13 October 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511559723.015
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Market forces
  • Lawrence H. Officer, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
  • Book: Between the Dollar-Sterling Gold Points
  • Online publication: 13 October 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511559723.015
Available formats
×