Preface

Summary

This book, together with the code, answers to questions, and other material at www.bayesmodels.com, teaches you how to do Bayesian modeling. Using modern computer software—and, in particular, the WinBUGS program—this turns out to be surprisingly straightforward. After working through the examples provided in this book, you should be able to build your own models, apply them to your own data, and draw your own conclusions.

This book is based on three principles. The first is that of accessibility: the book's only prerequisite is that you know how to operate a computer; you do not need any advanced knowledge of statistics or mathematics. The second principle is that of applicability: the examples in this book are meant to illustrate how Bayesian modeling can be useful for problems that people in cognitive science care about. The third principle is that of practicality: this book offers a hands-on, “just do it” approach that we feel keeps students interested and motivated.

In line with these three principles, this book has little content that is purely theoretical. Hence, you will not learn from this book why the Bayesian philosophy to inference is as compelling as it is; neither will you learn much about the intricate details of modern sampling algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, even though this book could not exist without them.