6 - Energy Security: An ASEAN Perspective

Summary

The projected demand for energy in ASEAN over the next two decades is expected to be among the highest in the world. Many of the ten member nations are just beginning their economic take-offs after decades of strife. Essential for sustained development to occur, of course, are adequate and reliable energy supplies. The region is not without energy resources. However, it is facing two major energy security worries: inadequate oil for transport fuels and inadequate electric power.

The local oil resources needed to fuel the transport sector are far from sufficient. Not only must the region steadily increase its imports of oil, but it must do so against the background of rapidly changing oil prices. At the time of writing, high oil prices were threatening the survival of the region's poorest through increased food, power, and transport costs. Governments were scrambling to attempt to eliminate oil subsidies on the one hand, and provide monetary assistance in other ways to cushion the effects of high oil prices, on the other. Most analysts predict that oil prices will rise much higher yet before feasible alternatives appear, be they biofuels, electric vehicles, etc. If this is the case, there will surely be heightened domestic insecurity within ASEAN. Public demonstrations could easily swell into efforts to overthrow governments.

As for electric power, there are large numbers of people in ASEAN who have none at all, or only minimal and unreliable supplies. The governments seem faced with the impossible dilemma of either building more fossil-fuelled plants that contribute to global warming, or building nuclear plants with their attendant relatively high costs, long lead times, and lack of expertise for building and operating, as well as the worries over disposal of wastes, building on land prone to natural disasters, and potential diversion to military or illicit uses.

ASEAN's two energy worries have implications for India and Australia. India shares the same worries as ASEAN. Their rates of modernization, and concomitantly, demand for and ways in which energy is consumed, will likely share some similarities over the coming years. Fortunately, India and ASEAN are beginning to cooperate instead of compete in the area of energy.