African Population, 1650–2000: Comparisons and Implications of New Estimates

doi:10.1017/CBO9781139644594.006

4 - African Population, 1650–2000: Comparisons and Implications of New Estimates

Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 September 2014

Patrick Manning

Edited by

Emmanuel Akyeampong ,

Robert H. Bates ,

Nathan Nunn and

James Robinson

Show author details

Patrick Manning: Affiliation:
University of Pittsburgh
Emmanuel Akyeampong: Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
Robert H. Bates: Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
Nathan Nunn: Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
James Robinson: Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts

Book contents

Get access

Summary

New and comprehensive estimates of African population, at regional and continental levels, suggest that from the seventeenth to the twentieth century the continent’s population was much larger in size yet growing at a slower rate than previously thought. In a project that is nearing completion, Scott Nickleach and I, with the assistance of Yun Zhang, Brian McGill, and Bowen Yi, are projecting African populations from 1950 back to 1650. The analysis relies on a combination of methods that account for decennial and regional estimates of net growth rates, effects of various social and environmental factors, and especially the demographic impact of enslavement and the attendant migration and mortality. Two hypotheses – a dense early modern African population and a decline in African population because of slave trade – are linked tightly together.

The present chapter focuses on the social implications of this new demographic argument. It begins with a concise summary of the new estimates at continental and regional levels, a comparison with previously accepted figures, and a brief exploration of the plausibility of the new figures. The bulk of this chapter discusses global comparisons of African population estimates and focuses especially on the main economic and social implications of these new estimates for our understanding of African history.

Type: Chapter
Information: Africa's Development in Historical Perspective , pp. 131 - 150

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139644594.006 [Opens in a new window]

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Print publication year: 2014

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Book purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Barth, Fredrik, ed. (1994). Ethnic Groups and Boundaries: The Social Organization of Culture Difference. Oslo: Pensumtjeneste.

Biraben, Jean-Noël. (1979). “Essai sur l’évolution du nombre des homes.” Population, 34: 13–25.CrossRef Google Scholar

Boserup, Ester. (1965). The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure. London: G. Allen & Unwin.Google Scholar

Caldwell, John C. (1982). “Comment on Manning, ‘The Enslavement of Africans: A Demographic Model.’” Canadian Journal of African Studies, 16: 127–30.Google Scholar

Caldwell, John C. and Schindlmayr, Thomas. (2002). “Historical Population Estimates: Unraveling the Consensus.” Population and Development Review, 28: 183–204.CrossRef Google Scholar

Carr-Saunders, A. M. (1936). World Population: Past Growth and Present Trends. Oxford: Clarendon.Google Scholar

Durand, John D. (1965). “World Population Estimates, 1750–2000.” In Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August – 10 September 1965, II: 17–22. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar

Eltis, David, ed. “Voyages: The Transatlantic Slave Trade Database.” .

Gemery, Henry A. and Hogendorn, Jan S.. (1974). “The Atlantic Slave Trade: A Tentative Economic Model.” Journal of African History, 15: 223–46.CrossRef Google Scholar

Hopkins, A. G. (1973). An Economic History of West Africa. London: Longman.Google Scholar

Iliffe, John. (1987). The African Poor: A History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef Google Scholar

Kuczynski, R. R. (1934). “Population.” In Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, Vol. 12, edited by Seligman, E. R. A. and Johnson, A., 240–8. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar

Kuczynski, R. R. (1944). “World Population Problems.” International Affairs, 20: 449–57.CrossRef Google Scholar

MacGaffey, Janet. (1991). The Real Economy of Zaire: The Contribution of Smuggling & Other Unofficial Activities to National Wealth. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.Google Scholar

Maddison, Angus. (2001). The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development.CrossRef Google Scholar

Manning, Patrick. (1981). “The Enslavement of Africans: A Demographic Model.” Canadian Journal of African Studies, 15: 499–526.Google Scholar

Manning, Patrick. (1982a). Slavery, Colonialism and Economic Growth in Dahomey, 1640–1960. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef Google Scholar

Manning, Patrick. (1982b). “Response to Comments by Caldwell and Inikori.” Canadian Journal of African Studies, 16: 138–9.Google Scholar

Manning, Patrick. (1990). Slavery and African Life: Occidental, Oriental, and Atlantic Slave Trades. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar

Manning, Patrick and Nickleach, Scott (forthcoming). African Population, 1650–1950: The Eras of Enslavement and Colonial Rule.

McCann, James. (2005). Maize and Grace: History, Corn, and Africa’s New Landscapes, 1500–1999. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRef Google Scholar

McEvedy, Colin and Jones, Richard. (1978). Atlas of World Population History. New York: Facts on File.Google Scholar

McKeown, Adam. (2004). “Global Migration, 1846–1940,” Journal of World History, 15: 155–89.CrossRef Google Scholar

Miller, Joseph C. (1982). “The Significance of Drought, Disease and Famine in the Agriculturally Marginal Zone of West-Central Africa.” Journal of African History, 22: 17–61.CrossRef Google Scholar

Miracle, Marvin P. (1966). Maize in Tropical Africa. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.Google Scholar

Patterson, Orlando. (1982). Slavery and Social Death: A Comparative Study. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar

Peukert, Werner. (1978). Der Atlantische Sklavenhanden von Dahomey, 1740–1797. Wiesbaden: Steiner.

Portes, Alejandro, Castells, Manuel, and Benton, Lauren A., eds. (1989). The Informal Economy: Studies in Advanced and Less Developed Countries. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Pryor, Frederic. (1977). The Origins of the Economy. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar

Tabutin, Dominique and Schoumaker, Bruno. (2002). “The Demography of Sub-Saharan Africa from the 1950s to the 2000s. A Survey of Changes and a Statistical Assessment.” Population, 59: 457–555.CrossRef Google Scholar

Wigboldus, Jouke. (1986). “Trade and Agriculture in Coastal Benin c. 1470–1660: An Examination of Manning’s Early-Growth Thesis.” A.A.G. Bijdragen, 28: 299–380.Google Scholar

Willcox, Walter F., ed. (1931) “Increase in the Population of the Earth and of the Continents since 1650.” In International Migrations, vol. 2, Interpretations, edited by. Willcox, W. F., 33–82. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Williamson, Kay and Blench, Roger. (2000). “Niger-Congo.” In African Languages: An Introduction, edited by Heine, Bernd and Nurse, Derek, 11–42. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar

Ehret, Christopher, History and the Testimony of Language (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2010)