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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 19 December 2024
Taiwan is a dynamic polity and cross-Strait relations are volatile. And broader US–China relations are in flux, if not at an inflection point. The dynamic changes in politics and foreign relations that we have discussed in the preceding chapters are an indication that nothing can be taken for granted. It is therefore difficult to predict Taiwan's future. Nonetheless, having evaluated some of the major issues surrounding Taiwan, we conclude by looking to the future and highlighting key questions and uncertainties.
THE POST-TSAI ERA
Tsai Ing-wen's two-term presidency concludes in 2024 with great uncertainty about her possible successor and the direction Taiwanese politics and cross-Strait relations takes next. Reflecting on the Tsai era, we see a consequential leader who made a significant imprint on Taiwan's trajectory. Domestically, she made a number of difficult policy reforms that were not universally well received. A volatile first term saw the passage of necessary labour and pension reforms that damaged her approval ratings. At one point it was not even certain that she would stand for re-election. Her second term was largely defined by Covid-19 and national security. Taiwan's pandemic policy response was globally lauded and led to some of the best Covid-19 outcomes in the world. Tsai's effective leadership led to strong approval ratings until subsequent economic slowdown began to be felt in Taiwan.
The verdict on Tsai coming out of western capitals was more unanimously positive. Tsai was praised for her pragmatism and moderation, her caution with regard to Chinese red lines and her preference for substance over symbolism. The same moderation toward China was criticized by some of the DPP's more radical supporters. KMT supporters meanwhile decried the same policies as futile and needlessly antagonistic toward the PRC, jeopardizing Taiwan's security and economy. Despite these dual critiques, Tsai persevered and was rewarded with a high level of trust in the western international community. The scale of Tsai's feat in securing Washington DC's approval, and rehabilitating the DPP's reputation after the Chen Shui-bian era, should not be underestimated. Furthermore, she set a high new standard for Taiwan's leadership internationally.
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