2 - Revolutionary change in the Third World: recent Soviet reassessments

Summary

An increasingly sober and far-ranging review of the nature of Third World radicalism and its relationship to scientific socialism marks a significant change in Soviet perceptions about the USSR's ability to manipulate anti-imperialism to its advantage. Dating from about 1980, this re-examination is related to Moscow's difficulties in imposing a Marxist regime in Afghanistan, the unexpected turn of the Iranian revolution from an anti-American upheaval into Islamic fundamentalism, and the mounting concern for the performance of the Soviet economy.

Official statements give only partial and conflicting evidence of an altered outlook. In the past three years, for example, the May Day slogans, which reaffirm the regime's domestic and foreign policy objectives, have given up many ritualistic claims about revolutionary change in the Third World. They no longer single out the radical states that have chosen the path of socialist orientation; the adjective “invincible” has been dropped from the reference to the Soviet Union's alliance with the national liberation movements; and the “struggle against imperialism” is not mentioned as the goal of international solidarity. Yet, these claims have not disappeared altogether from other pronouncements.

To get a better sense of the on-going reassessment one must turn to the writings of Soviet experts on the Third World. Many of them are prominent in academic and Party institutions that help formulate foreign policy. Among these people the change of mood is unmistakable.