Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of Contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Integrated regional risk assessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21
- 3 Risk analysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing
- 4 Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar
- 5 Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting
- 6 Flood risk management: Risk cartography for objective negotiations
- 7 Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia
- 8 Developing an indicator of a community's disaster risk awareness
- 9 Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation
- 10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models
- 11 Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed
- 12 Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems
- 13 Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input
- 14 Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty
- 15 System and component uncertainties in water resources
- 16 Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method
- 17 Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change
- 18 Risk and reliability in water resources management: Theory and practice
- 19 Quantifying system sustainability using multiple risk criteria
- 20 Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems
- 21 Future of reservoirs and their management criteria
- 22 Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems
- 23 Risk management for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads
5 - Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 18 January 2010
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of Contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Integrated regional risk assessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21
- 3 Risk analysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing
- 4 Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar
- 5 Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting
- 6 Flood risk management: Risk cartography for objective negotiations
- 7 Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia
- 8 Developing an indicator of a community's disaster risk awareness
- 9 Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation
- 10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models
- 11 Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed
- 12 Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems
- 13 Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input
- 14 Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty
- 15 System and component uncertainties in water resources
- 16 Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method
- 17 Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change
- 18 Risk and reliability in water resources management: Theory and practice
- 19 Quantifying system sustainability using multiple risk criteria
- 20 Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems
- 21 Future of reservoirs and their management criteria
- 22 Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems
- 23 Risk management for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads
Summary
ABSTRACT
The U.S. National Weather Service has supported the development of an integrated probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting system. The system produces probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts that are used to produce probabilistic river stage forecasts; these in turn are input to optimal decision procedures for issuing flood warnings, operating waterways and barges, or controlling storage reservoirs. The system is designed based on Bayesian principles of probabilistic forecasting and rational decision making. This chapter outlines the system concept.
INTRODUCTION
Systems approach to hydrometeorological forecasting
That forecasts should be stated in probabilistic rather than categorical terms has been argued from operational (Cooke 1906) and decision-theoretic (Murphy 1991) perspectives for almost a century. Yet most operational systems produce deterministic forecasts and most research in physical and statistical sciences has been devoted to finding the “best” estimates rather than probability distributions of predictands. Undoubtedly, the leap from a deterministic frame of thought to one that not only admits our limited knowledge and information, but also quantifies uncertainty about future states of the environment, requires a vast and coordinated effort at two levels: engineering – to design probabilistic forecasting systems, and organizational – to alter the institutional mindset and modus operandi.
The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) has embarked on making such a quantum change (Zevin 1994; Krzysztofowicz 1998). The goal is to increase the value of service to users by developing and implementing an integrated probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting system.
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- Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2002
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