8 - The Waiting Game: Après les élections, le déluge

Summary

The chapter uses data on the timing of all legislative proposals that were negotiated in the EU between 1977 and 2009 to analyze the conditions under which EU members delay negotiations until after national elections as a strategy of blame avoidance. The results provide support for the notion that governments attempt to delay the adoption of legislative proposals until after the elections. Proposals that are negotiated close to national elections are significantly less likely to be adopted than proposals that are negotiated in non-election periods. Consistent with my argument, delays are particularly likely when the issues are highly conflictual and when EU members expect unfavorable and unresponsive outcomes. I show that the delay of particular proposals can even affect legislative tides in European negotiations, as long as a sufficient number of proposals within a given time period fall close to a national election.