The ASEAN-10

Summary

Brunei Darussalam

Thanut Tritasavit

Brunei Darussalam had a recorded population of approximately 417,000 according to government estimates (IMF 2011). Per capita constant GDP based on purchasing power parity (international dollars) was about 49,500.

Brunei Darussalam's GDP growth in 2011 was a mere 2.8 per cent, down from the earlier forecast of 3.1 per cent. Its economic growth prospects in 2012 and 2013 are expected to be lower due to rising risks from the eurozone debt crisis and a slowdown in the United States. Inflation rates (average consumer prices) are projected to remain contained at 1.2 per cent in both 2012 and 2013 even though food and service prices will keep it above trend despite a fall in average utility bills. Unemployment is also expected to remain at 3.7 per cent during the forecast period.

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

• Actual GDP growth in 2011 was slightly lower than forecasts at 2.6 per cent, partially due to revisions in 2010 showing a deeper decline at 1.8 per cent.

• The global economic slowdown will hinder growth in 2012 and 2013, although it is still expected to be positive.

• The Bruneian economy has remained relatively stable due to the pick up in domestic demand, compensating for the slower global economy.

• The future of Brunei's economy lies in the success of its economic diversification programme as these alternatives will be the key sources of growth once the hydrocarbons run out.

Current account surpluses and fiscal surpluses in 2010 recovered from a drop in the previous year and increased the following year. However, a slight decrease is expected in the balance, which can be attributed to the slowdown in the global economy. The current account balance is expected to be about US$7.56 billion in 2011, and US$7.338 billion and US$7.194 billion in 2012 and 2013, respectively.

Growth Forecast for 2012 and 2013

During the forecast period of 2012 and 2013, real GDP is expected to grow by 2.17 per cent and 1.88 per cent, respectively (IMF 2011).