3 - Measuring the Gulf economies

Summary

The Arab Gulf economies share broad features and characteristics, but each have some unique features, too. They are all heavily reliant upon oil or gas revenue, or both, and increasingly on downstream and associated activity as well. They all have broadly similar positive and negative attributes that stem from this reliance on hydrocarbons. They all are seeking to diversify their economies, to move away from being so vulnerable to energy price shocks and to expand other economic sectors where a greater range of employment opportunities and diverse workforce skills are required – and they are all struggling, in broadly similar ways, to make progress in this regard. Yet individual features vary economy by economy. The importance of rents is not the same across all six. While they are all relatively affluent, falling near the top on lists of the Middle East’s GDP per capita or on measures of socioeconomic development, the sizes of these economies vary enormously. So too does the income per capita: the Gulf economies are a mix of upper-middle- and high-income economies. Beyond energy, they have built competitive businesses in some of the same sectors, but most have also developed some unique commercial strengths. Finally, the trading and commercial history of the Gulf’s ports and cities differ, which has created different sized commercial classes in the region, formed contrasting business–government relationships across the region, and even influenced their political and social structures.

AN OVERVIEW OF THE SIX GCC ECONOMIES

All six Gulf states are relatively well-developed, middle-upper and upper-income economies. While they have been important to the global economy since the mid-twentieth century, due to their oil exports, in the past two decades or so they have more actively sought to integrate more deeply into it. Important as they are, the Gulf states’ economies constitute only a small share of the world economy. In 2015, the total GDP of the six GCC states added up to just under $1,392 billion, or less than 1.9 per cent of the global total of $74.5 trillion. Arguably, had 2015 not been a period of such low energy prices, the figure would have been higher, but only a little. While small and dominated by energy exports, the Gulf economies are increasingly well-integrated into the international trade and economic system.