The distribution theory for discrete-time renewal–reward processes with dependent rewards is developed through the derivation of double transforms. By dependent, we mean the more realistic setting in which the reward for an interarrival period is dependent on the duration of the associated interarrival time. The double transforms are the generating functions in time of the time-dependent reward probability-generating functions. Residue and saddlepoint approximations are used to invert such double transforms so that the reward distribution at arbitrary time n can be accurately approximated. In addition, double transforms are developed for the first-passage time distribution that the cumulative reward exceeds a fixed threshold amount. These distributions are accurately approximated by inverting the double transforms using residue and saddlepoint approximation methods. The residue methods also provide asymptotic expansions for moments and allow for the proof of central limit theorems related to these first passage times and reward amounts.

We study three classes of shock models governed by an inverse gamma mixed Poisson process (IGMP), namely a mixed Poisson process with an inverse gamma mixing distribution. In particular, we analyze (1) the extreme shock model, (2) the δ-shock model, and the (3) cumulative shock model. For the latter, we assume a constant and an exponentially distributed random threshold and consider different choices for the distribution of the amount of damage caused by a single shock. For all the treated cases, we obtain the survival function, together with the expected value and the variance of the failure time. Some properties of the inverse gamma mixed Poisson process are also disclosed.

We study a reliability system subject to shocks generated by a renewal point process. When a shock occurs, components fail independently of each other with equal probabilities that are random numbers drawn from a distribution that may differ from shock to shock. We first consider the case of a parallel system and derive closed expressions for the Laplace-Stieltjes transform and the expectation of the time to system failure and for its density in the case that the distribution function of the renewal process possesses a density. We then treat a more general system structure, which has some very important special cases, such as k-out-of-n:F systems, and derive analogous formulae.

Minimal repairs have been given considerable attention in the reliability literature. Instead of replacing a failed system by a new one, such a minimal repair restores the system to the state it had just before failure. But the state just before failure depends on the information which is available about the system. Different information levels are possible. This paper gives a general definition characterizing point processes which describe time points of minimal repairs with respect to a certain information level. Some examples demonstrate the wide range of applications.

We consider some important systems in reliability theory situated in a random environment, where shocks occur and cause component failure in a specific way. We study some appropriate coefficients, which play an important role in the reduction of our systems to a linear combination of parallel subsystems.

Suppose that a device is subjected to shocks governed by a counting process N = {N(t), t ≧0}. The probability that the device survives beyond time t is then H̄(t)=Σk=0∞Q̄ℙ[N(t)=k], where Q̄k is the probability of surviving k shocks. It is known that H is NBU if the interarrivals Uk, ∊ ℕ+, are independent and NBU, and Q̄k+j ≦ Q̄k· Q̄j holds whenever k, j ∊ ℕ. Similar results hold for the classes of the NBUE and HNBUE distributions. We show that some other ageing classes have similar properties.

In this paper, optimal stopping problems for semi-Markov processes are studied in a fairly general setting. In such a process transitions are made from state to state in accordance with a Markov chain, but the amount of time spent in each state is random. The times spent in each state follow a general renewal process. They may depend on the present state as well as on the state into which the next transition is made.

Our goal is to maximize the expected net return, which is given as a function of the state at time t minus some cost function. Discounting may or may not be considered. The main theorems (Theorems 3.5 and 3.11) are expressions for the optimal stopping time in the undiscounted and discounted case. These theorems generalize results of Zuckerman [16] and Boshuizen and Gouweleeuw [3]. Applications are given in various special cases.

The results developed in this paper can also be applied to semi-Markov shock models, as considered in Taylor [13], Feldman [6] and Zuckerman [15].

Two devices are subjected to common shocks arriving according to two identical counting processes. Let and denote the probability of surviving k shocks for the first and the second device, respectively. We find conditions on the discrete distributions and in order to obtain the failure rate order (FR), the likelihood ratio order (LR) and the mean residual order (MR) between the random lifetimes of the two devices. We also obtain sufficient conditions under which the above mentioned relations between the discrete distributions are verified in some cumulative damage shock models.

Shock models based on Poisson processes have been used to derive univariate and multivariate exponential distributions. But in many applications, Poisson processes are not realistic models of physical shock processes because they have independent increments; expanded models that allow for possibly dependent increments are of interest. In this paper, univariate and bivariate Pólya urn schemes are used to derive models of shock sources. The life distributions obtained from these models form a large parametric family that includes the exponential distribution. Even in the univariate case these life distributions have not been widely used, though they form a large and flexible family. In the bivariate case, the family includes the bivariate exponential distributions of Marshall and Olkin as a special case.

The paper investigates stochastic processes directed by a randomized time process. A new family of directing processes called Hougaard processes is introduced. Monotonicity properties preserved under subordination, and dependence among processes directed by a common randomized time are studied. Results for processes subordinated to Poisson and stable processes are presented. Potential applications to shock models and threshold models are also discussed. Only Markov processes are considered.

We consider a consecutive-k-out-of-n system situated in a random environment where shocks occur and cause components to fail with certain probabilities. Under certain reasonable assumptions we compute the moment generating function of the time of failure of the system and the distribution of the number of shocks required to cause failure of the system.

The paper presents problems, methods and results concerned with the stochastic modelling of fatigue damage of materials. First, the physical and engineering origins of the fatigue phenomenon are briefly outlined. After that, the main existing approaches to random fatigue problems and the models proposed are described in such a way as to show their mathematical structure and usefulness for engineering practice.

A number of extensions of the class preservation results in the Esary, Marshall and Proschan shock model have been investigated by various authors in recent years, most recently by Ghosh and Ebrahimi. In this note, generalizations are obtained using different methods for the IFR and NBUE cases when the shocking process is a regular continuous-time Markov process with stationary transition probabilites.

Suppose Y is the strength of a system subjected to a sequence of stresses X1, X2, X3, · ··. Let N(t) be the number of stresses occurring by time t and let T be the lifetime of the system. Then the survival distribution of is given by where and . In this note we aim at determining from the above model various non-parametric classes of life distributions which are of interest in reliability theory.

Let with Z(0) = 0 be a random process under investigation and N be a point process associated with Z. Both Z and N are defined on the same probability space. Let with R0 = 0 denote the consecutive positions of points of N on the half-line . In this paper we present sufficient conditions under which (Z, R) is a new better than used (NBU) process and give several examples of NBU processes satisfying these conditions. In particular we consider the processes in which N is a renewal and a general point process. The NBU property of some semi-Markov processes is also presented.

A stochastic process , such that P{Z(0) = 0} = 1, is said to be new better than used (NBU) if, for every x, the first-passage time Tx = inf {t: Z(t) > x} satisfies P{TX > s + t} for everys . In this paper it is shown that many useful processes are NBU. Examples of such processes include processes with shocks and recovery, processes with random repair-times, various Gaver–Miller processes and some strong Markov processes. Applications in reliability theory, queueing, dams, inventory and electrical activity of neurons are indicated. It is shown that various waiting times for clusters of events and for short and wide gaps in some renewal processes are NBU random variables. The NBU property of processes and random variables can be used to obtain bounds on various probabilistic quantities of interest; this is illustrated numerically.

In this paper we define and analyze a general shock model associated with a correlated pair (Xn, Yn) of renewal sequences, where the system fails when the magnitude of a shock exceeds (or falls below) a prespecified threshold level. Two models, depending on whether the nth shock Xn is correlated to the length Yn of the interval since the last shock, or to the length Yn of the subsequent interval until the next shock, are considered. The transform results, an exponential limit theorem, and properties of the associated renewal process of the failure times are obtained. An application in a stochastic clearing system with numerical results is also given.

Shock models leading to various univariate and bivariate increasing failure rate (IFR) and decreasing mean residual life (DMRL) distributions are discussed. For proving the IFR properties, shocks are not necessarily assumed to be governed by a Poisson process.

Conditions are given on a process so that a shock model governed by the process will have nbue survival time. A related condition is given so that survival will be NBU and it is shown that a pure birth process satisfies this condition. A result of A-Hameed and Proschan is obtained as a corollary.

This paper extends results of Esary, Marshall and Proschan (1973) and A-Hameed and Proschan (1973). We consider the life distribution of a device subject to a sequence of shocks occurring randomly in time according to a nonstationary pure birth process: given k shocks have occurred in [0, t], the probability of a shock occurring in (t, t + Δ] is λ kλ (t)Δ + o (Δ). We show that various fundamental classes of life distributions (such as those with increasing failure rate, or those with the ‘new better than used' property, etc.) are obtained under appropriate assumptions on λ k, λ (t), and on the probability of surviving a given number of shocks.