For ensuring food demand of the fast growing population in developing countries, quantification of crop yield gaps and exploring production constraints are very crucial. Sorghum is one of the most important climate change resilient crops in the rainfed farming systems of semi-arid tropics. However, there is little information about yield gaps and production constraints. This study aimed at analysing existing yield gaps and exploring major constraints of sorghum production in Southwest Ethiopia. A crop simulation model approach using AquaCrop and DSSAT was used to estimate potential yield and analyse the yield gaps. Model calibration and evaluation was performed using data from field experiments conducted in 2018 and 2019. Sorghum production constraints were assessed using a survey. The actual and water-limited yield of sorghum ranged from 0.58 to 2.51 and 3.6 to 6.47 t/ha, respectively for the period 2003–17. The regional yield gaps of sorghum for the targeted period were 3.02–3.95 t/ha with a mean value of 3.51 t/ha. Majority of respondent farmers considered seasonal rainfall risk (98%), poor soil fertility (86%), lack of improved varieties (78%) and inadequate weed management (56%) as major factors responsible for the existing yield gaps. The mean exploitable yield gap (2.5 t/ha) between water-limited and actual yield showed the level of existing opportunity for improvement in the actual productivity of sorghum. The gaps also call for introduction of proper interventions such as adoption of improved varieties, planting date adjustment, conservation tillage, fertilizer application and on time weed management.

Crop models can be used to explain yield variations associated with management practices, environment and genotype. This study aimed to assess the effect of plant densities using CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean for low latitudes. The crop model was calibrated and evaluated using data from field experiments, including plant densities (10, 20, 30 and 40 plants per m2), maturity groups (MG 7.7 and 8.8) and sowing dates (calibration: 06 Jan., 19 Jan., 16 Feb. 2018; and evaluation: 19 Jan. 2019). The model simulated phenology with a bias lower than 2 days for calibration and 7 days for evaluation. Relative root mean square error for the maximum leaf area index varied from 12.2 to 31.3%; while that for grain yield varied between 3 and 32%. The calibrated model was used to simulate different management scenarios across six sites located in the low latitude, considering 33 growing seasons. Simulations showed a higher yield for 40 pl per m2, as expected, but with greater yield gain increments occurring at low plant density going from 10 to 20 pl per m2. In Santarém, Brazil, MG 8.8 sown on 21 Feb. had a median yield of 2658, 3197, 3442 and 3583 kg/ha, respectively, for 10, 20, 30 and 40 pl per m2, resulting in a relative increase of 20, 8 and 4% for each additional 10 pl per m2. Overall, the crop model had adequate performance, indicating a minimum recommended plant density of 20 pl per m2, while sowing dates and maturity groups showed different yield level and pattern across sites in function of the local climate.