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1 results

  • Presidents, Fed chairs, and the deviations from the Taylor rule

  • Fang-Shuo Chang, Shiu-Sheng Chen, Tzu-Yu Lin, Po-Yuan Wang
  • Journal:
    Macroeconomic Dynamics / Volume 27 / Issue 6 / September 2023
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    31 August 2022, pp. 1687-1705
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  • This paper examines whether changes in US presidential administration and central bank turnover during the period 1976–2016 caused regime shifts in Taylor rule deviations. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to construct the welfare-maximizing policy rule and deviations from the optimal rule, we find evidence that politics indeed play a key role in explaining these deviations. In addition to politics, unemployment rates and the interest rate spread significantly account for regime shifts in Taylor rule deviations.