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1 results

  • 4 - The Wild West of Contemporary Polling

  • from Part I - Polling in Context
  • Michael A. Bailey, Georgetown University, Washington DC
  • Book:
    Polling at a Crossroads
    Published online:
    29 February 2024
    Print publication:
    07 March 2024, pp 77-98

  • Summary

    This chapter describes contemporary practices of probabilistic and nonprobabilistic pollsters. First, even pollsters who aspire to random sampling are doing something quite foreign to the random sampling paradigm. Continuing to use the language of random sampling is therefore becoming increasingly untenable. Second, the energy and growth in polling is concentrated in nonprobabilistic polls that do not even pretend to adhere to the tenets of the random sampling paradigm. When we use, teach, and critique such polls, we need a new language for assessing them. Finally, one of the biggest vulnerabilities for both probabilistic and nonprobabilistic polling is nonignorable nonresponse, something largely ignored in the current state of the art. It is striking that despite the incredible diversity of techniques currently deployed, academic and commercial pollsters mostly continue to use models that assume away nonignorable nonresponse.